Remove Advertisements

Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Anything, including off-topic posts

Moderators: Fridmarr, Worldie, Aergis, Sabindeus, PsiVen

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Taeron » Sun Aug 04, 2013 2:36 am

Thels wrote:Making it easier to catch up is not an incentive for players to return. It's to prevent players that returned from immediately leaving again, since it's too hard to catch up.

If you return now, but it takes you weeks-months to catch up to your friends and start raiding with them again, you're likely to quite the game again soon.


I understand that and it makes perfect sense, but what are you telling the older player he or she is catching up to upon returning? Right now, they're catching up to the same things that made them quit in the first place.

I don't know what I'd do to bring old players back, to be honest, but I was hoping we'd maybe see something cool. As arbitrary as that sounds, heh. I am really looking forward to the info on the new expansion and I hope it will be appealing to the players who enjoyed the universe of Warcraft. Would be great to see some old names that quit in the past couple of years back in the game, even if that is quite unlikely.

Or perhaps announcement of WoW 2 :)
Taeron
 
Posts: 254
Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2007 8:00 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Darielle » Sun Aug 04, 2013 3:17 am

Being a young gamer (only 33 - average age is 37, I saw in a newspaper a few weeks ago, referencing some study), I can relate to the thing of things getting easier.


Part of this of course is because the concept of a gamer itself has changed. Back in the day, the person playing Solitaire or Tetris at office wouldn't have been considered a gamer, but nowadays the person who tabs out to do something on Farmville or secretly plays Angry Birds IS a gamer.

What would you do if you were Blizzard, accept the loss of a quarter of the player base over 4 years, or accomodate that 1% of heroic raiders and lose 99% of the playerbase within a couple months?.


Side note: This is a silly misuse of numbers based on a relatively silly statement from Blizzard. I've seen it perpetuated from Blizzard as well.

There's no "1% of Heroic Raiders" or anything like that, and there's certainly no concept that a change to raiding will lose 99% of the playerbase within a couple of months; said 99% of the playerbase are NOT even majorly lvl 90 let alone caring about raiding. It's a bastardisation of the quote back when Blizzard was talking about how they remembered only 300 guilds killing Kel'Thuzad or 1% saw Kil'Jaeden dead, and of course you didn't need to have KT dead or KJ dead to be a Heroic Raider any more than you must have Ra-Den dead to be a Heroic Raider now, and it didn't even make proper sense back when they first speculated with those guesstimates because, again, it's not like the majority of the playerbase is even level 90 or in a position to raid, so counting millions of people in a statistic irrelevant to them is silly.
Darielle
 
Posts: 1315
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:41 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Lieris » Sun Aug 04, 2013 5:58 am

Darielle wrote:
What would you do if you were Blizzard, accept the loss of a quarter of the player base over 4 years, or accomodate that 1% of heroic raiders and lose 99% of the playerbase within a couple months?.


Side note: This is a silly misuse of numbers based on a relatively silly statement from Blizzard. I've seen it perpetuated from Blizzard as well.

There's no "1% of Heroic Raiders" or anything like that, and there's certainly no concept that a change to raiding will lose 99% of the playerbase within a couple of months; said 99% of the playerbase are NOT even majorly lvl 90 let alone caring about raiding. It's a bastardisation of the quote back when Blizzard was talking about how they remembered only 300 guilds killing Kel'Thuzad or 1% saw Kil'Jaeden dead, and of course you didn't need to have KT dead or KJ dead to be a Heroic Raider any more than you must have Ra-Den dead to be a Heroic Raider now, and it didn't even make proper sense back when they first speculated with those guesstimates because, again, it's not like the majority of the playerbase is even level 90 or in a position to raid, so counting millions of people in a statistic irrelevant to them is silly.


Thank you for addressing this hyperbole.

I will preface this by saying that TBC was deeply flawed especially with the 40 man squish to 25 man, down to 10 man groups for Karazhan then back to 25 for (an over-tuned) Gruul's Lair but other than that progression was well designed. Back then people were okay with not blitzing through all the content on ridiculously easy difficulty modes. I was moooooooonths behind for most of TBC and that was fine! You could go at your own pace and you didn't care that the top guilds were farming Black Temple while you were still in SSC; there were guilds progressing on all of the tiers and it didn't matter that the top guilds had killed bosses long before you had, it still felt fantastic. Progressive targeted nerfs across all bosses meant you never felt robbed of a kill (as opposed to the lazy flat 30% nerfs in Cataclysm) and they allowed guilds to overcome what would otherwise be brick walls. By the time you got to a boss you might be fighting version 6 or 7 of it and that was okay because you didn't want to fight version 1 with the buggy or stupid mechanics anyway!

Throwing easy gear at me won't get me to resubscribe (I still might though to experience the story). I would actually be more inclined to if I could raid T14 and like with TBC, progress at my own pace on the only existing difficulty level and experience that same feeling of accomplishment as those who did it 9 months ago.
Lieris
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 2179
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:49 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Nooska » Sun Aug 04, 2013 10:35 am

Darielle wrote:
Being a young gamer (only 33 - average age is 37, I saw in a newspaper a few weeks ago, referencing some study), I can relate to the thing of things getting easier.


Part of this of course is because the concept of a gamer itself has changed. Back in the day, the person playing Solitaire or Tetris at office wouldn't have been considered a gamer, but nowadays the person who tabs out to do something on Farmville or secretly plays Angry Birds IS a gamer.


I'm pretty sure the referenced study is not farmville and Angry Birds included. The average I believe, because it would include exactly the people I would suspsect, those a bit older than me that I know game, as a majority group (to be honest, I'm not 100% sure whether it was average or median age).
It would take the Vic120/C64/Amiga generation(s) and have them continue gaming, which I do find believable.

If it included solitaire, farmville or angry birds, I would expect the number to be quite a lot higher.
Main Characters:
Nooska, Blood Elf BM/SV Hunter on Argent Dawn (EU)
Morosin, Bloody freezing orc death knight on Argent Dawn (EU)
Niisca, Shady forsaken "priest" on Argent Dawn (EU)

Keeper Emeritus of the BM hunters guide on Elitist Jerks and the wowhead version untill patch 5.3.
User avatar
Nooska
 
Posts: 1355
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2011 10:55 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby benebarba » Sun Aug 04, 2013 1:18 pm

a couple thoughts:
1) Trying to get people back who left is a tougher battle than getting new people in: the folks who left (again aside from those who left for some temporary reason such as time or money) generally will have some big reason that they'll need to be convinced isn't likely to still be there, and very well may be savvy enough to tell the difference between actual change and marketing change. New folks just have to go 'ooh! shiny!' and get into whatever is there, or not.

2) Business-wise, it doesn't matter if your players change daily or you have the same pile of players: as long as the ratio of money coming in relative to the money going out stays the same or grows , it's a *business* win. However, you can easily drive a product into the ground chasing popularity alone... since once you lose a dedicated customer-base, you lose the 'sure thing' sales and replace them with the fickle mob. This is where small companies can make that 'we don't chase profits alone' stand, but it all depends on who's running the show.

3) I think a comment I read a while back essentially saying that Blizz kind of blew thier lore-load with Wrath is pretty much dead on: The draw from the RTSs is pretty much done. It had to happen some time, but now we're in the far more debatable waters of 'new canon', which they are trying to work in a far more 'multimedia' manner, which isn't really cutting it for everyone. Maybe an Emerald Dream or Burning Legion or Argus expansion could bring some folks back who really cared about that stuff. But the folks who simply see a game they no longer want to play probably aren't going to come back, and frankly it's tough to say what changes/additions could even start to bring some of them back (i.e. anecdote =/= data, and what customers say they want doesn't always equal what they actually want, let alone 'need').
benebarba
 
Posts: 2469
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:30 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Darielle » Sun Aug 04, 2013 1:40 pm

I'm pretty sure the referenced study is not farmville and Angry Birds included. The average I believe, because it would include exactly the people I would suspsect, those a bit older than me that I know game, as a majority group (to be honest, I'm not 100% sure whether it was average or median age).
It would take the Vic120/C64/Amiga generation(s) and have them continue gaming, which I do find believable.

If it included solitaire, farmville or angry birds, I would expect the number to be quite a lot higher.


If it DOESN'T include Farmville or Angry Birds (or Temple Run or Fruit Ninja or Just Dance - WII or Guitar Hero) for current stats, it's not a very good study. They're extremely popular games made by studios that are examples of the rise in casual gaming.
Darielle
 
Posts: 1315
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:41 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Rhiannon » Sun Aug 04, 2013 3:08 pm

Nooska wrote:
Darielle wrote:
Being a young gamer (only 33 - average age is 37, I saw in a newspaper a few weeks ago, referencing some study), I can relate to the thing of things getting easier.


Part of this of course is because the concept of a gamer itself has changed. Back in the day, the person playing Solitaire or Tetris at office wouldn't have been considered a gamer, but nowadays the person who tabs out to do something on Farmville or secretly plays Angry Birds IS a gamer.


I'm pretty sure the referenced study is not farmville and Angry Birds included. The average I believe, because it would include exactly the people I would suspsect, those a bit older than me that I know game, as a majority group (to be honest, I'm not 100% sure whether it was average or median age).
It would take the Vic120/C64/Amiga generation(s) and have them continue gaming, which I do find believable.

If it included solitaire, farmville or angry birds, I would expect the number to be quite a lot higher.


Whatever newspaper article you read was more than likely based on out of date information:

http://kotaku.com/5931077/the-average-a ... rs-um-what

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2012/07/h ... k-to-2005/

http://www.theesa.com/facts/

Angry birds etc. is included.

I would also suggest that gaming in the "Vic120/C64/Amiga generation(s)" had much shallower penetration than gaming does now.
Rhiannon
 
Posts: 1061
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 8:17 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Nooska » Mon Aug 05, 2013 7:11 am

Darielle wrote:
I'm pretty sure the referenced study is not farmville and Angry Birds included. The average I believe, because it would include exactly the people I would suspsect, those a bit older than me that I know game, as a majority group (to be honest, I'm not 100% sure whether it was average or median age).
It would take the Vic120/C64/Amiga generation(s) and have them continue gaming, which I do find believable.

If it included solitaire, farmville or angry birds, I would expect the number to be quite a lot higher.


If it DOESN'T include Farmville or Angry Birds (or Temple Run or Fruit Ninja or Just Dance - WII or Guitar Hero) for current stats, it's not a very good study. They're extremely popular games made by studios that are examples of the rise in casual gaming.


Well, as I don't have the newspaper by me, I'm not going to claim a whole lot, since I can't source check.
However, I would consider a "gamer" to be someone who did more than casual gaming - I would classify that as a different category, and with a known overlap (meaning the study could still be good).

Trying to remember the exact wording, it would translate to "the average age of people playing computer games" where the wording for something that includes casual games would have been different, referencing specifically online/casual games (its a pretty serious newspaper that presented some fun and/or interesting factoids in a summer issue (to fill out space I'm guessing) - however if that is a journalistic misunderstanding, I cannot vouch for.
I only brought it up peripherally, and I only becaus ethe number jives with what I would expect going in to such a study (especially if its a mean age, rather than an average - regardless of what was noted in the newspaper, I know a lot of danse don't know the difference, so that could also be on the journalist).
Main Characters:
Nooska, Blood Elf BM/SV Hunter on Argent Dawn (EU)
Morosin, Bloody freezing orc death knight on Argent Dawn (EU)
Niisca, Shady forsaken "priest" on Argent Dawn (EU)

Keeper Emeritus of the BM hunters guide on Elitist Jerks and the wowhead version untill patch 5.3.
User avatar
Nooska
 
Posts: 1355
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2011 10:55 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Passionario » Mon Aug 05, 2013 7:29 am

I think that Blizzard should accept that many people quit for good and fully embrace the churn.

Yes, there are more WoW ex-players than there are current players. The same is true for Warhammer 40K and Magic: the Gathering, but you don't see GW and WotC bending over backwards to recapture those who stopped playing.
If you are not the flame, you're the fuel.
User avatar
Passionario
 
Posts: 3288
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:52 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Nooska » Mon Aug 05, 2013 7:35 am

Passionario: do you honestly claim that wow has had more than 16 million players? (actual number must be a bit higher for that claim, as there was 12 million at one point)
Main Characters:
Nooska, Blood Elf BM/SV Hunter on Argent Dawn (EU)
Morosin, Bloody freezing orc death knight on Argent Dawn (EU)
Niisca, Shady forsaken "priest" on Argent Dawn (EU)

Keeper Emeritus of the BM hunters guide on Elitist Jerks and the wowhead version untill patch 5.3.
User avatar
Nooska
 
Posts: 1355
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2011 10:55 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby benebarba » Mon Aug 05, 2013 7:48 am

Nooska wrote:Passionario: do you honestly claim that wow has had more than 16 million players? (actual number must be a bit higher for that claim, as there was 12 million at one point)


No need to: if one new player replaced every leaving player, you'd have as many ex-players as players but the total active would remain the same. (just saying it doesn't need to have had double the number of players at some point)
benebarba
 
Posts: 2469
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:30 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Nooska » Mon Aug 05, 2013 8:05 am

Well if there are more explayers than players, and subscriptions are at 8.3 million, there has to have been at least 16.6 million players over the course of time.
And my second part is actually what you are saying - the total number of active players would remain the same, so when we have had a peak of ~12 million (iirc), the total number should be higher, unless no new players replaced leaving players since the peak, and the current 8.3 all played during the peak.
Main Characters:
Nooska, Blood Elf BM/SV Hunter on Argent Dawn (EU)
Morosin, Bloody freezing orc death knight on Argent Dawn (EU)
Niisca, Shady forsaken "priest" on Argent Dawn (EU)

Keeper Emeritus of the BM hunters guide on Elitist Jerks and the wowhead version untill patch 5.3.
User avatar
Nooska
 
Posts: 1355
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2011 10:55 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby benebarba » Mon Aug 05, 2013 8:13 am

Nooska wrote:Well if there are more explayers than players, and subscriptions are at 8.3 million, there has to have been at least 16.6 million players over the course of time.
And my second part is actually what you are saying - the total number of active players would remain the same, so when we have had a peak of ~12 million (iirc), the total number should be higher, unless no new players replaced leaving players since the peak, and the current 8.3 all played during the peak.


Right, but I don't think anyone is talking about cumulative totals (I guess the age thing maybe) - the numbers I've seen reported are all 'current subscriber' numbers and the like. The data on churn is likely known by Blizzard (and other companies for their games), but seems only to come up in justifications to investors during downturns, rather than presented as hard data along side current numbers.
benebarba
 
Posts: 2469
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:30 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby halabar » Mon Aug 05, 2013 11:29 am

Perhaps the biggest mistake that Blizz made along the way was to say "Max level is where the real game begins", and then to design content to reinforce that, minimizing the leveling process as much as possible, unless it's where they want to slow players down.

It would be nice to see content that's separate from the raiding content, with it's own set of rewards, because right now, other than pokewow, everything pretty much revolves around or supports raiding. Other that pvp, of course.. which is why all things get nerfed... :-P
Amirya wrote:... because everyone needs a Catagonskin rug.

twinkfist wrote:i feel bad for the Mogu...having to deal with alcoholic bears.
User avatar
halabar
 
Posts: 9343
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 8:21 am
Location: <in the guild that shall not be named>

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby fuzzygeek » Mon Aug 05, 2013 11:58 am

halabar wrote:Perhaps the biggest mistake that Blizz made along the way was to say "Max level is where the real game begins", and then to design content to reinforce that,


The problem with this is you spend six hours being level 84. You spend six months being level 85. Numbers are illustrative only, but you get the point. Leveling up is something you do once per character, but max level stuff is content you do over and over and over and over again.

Unless they completely change game mechanics to, like, FF5 Job System where leveling *is* content, I don't see how they can do anything different.
Image
User avatar
fuzzygeek
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 5085
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:58 pm

PreviousNext

Return to General

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Daeva001 and 1 guest


Remove Advertisements

Who is online

In total there are 2 users online :: 1 registered, 0 hidden and 1 guest (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 380 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:28 pm

Users browsing this forum: Daeva001 and 1 guest