Page 28 of 47

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 2:40 pm
by KysenMurrin
His post now says 30%, not 25%.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 2:52 pm
by Sagara
I still wonder if it will be enough. 30% of (say) 25% is still about... 7.5% proc rate every 1.5sec instead of 20% every 4.5 sec.

Well, I guess theck is now on overtime :-p

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:22 pm
by Fetzie
I think that comes to a higher proc chance of GC per occurrence with 25% avoidance based on a 1.5 second swing timer than we currently get with the proc chance off CS/HotR. Tell me if I'm doing it wrong:

I currently have 25.39% dodge + parry.
30% of that is 7.617%. Divide that by 1.5 (the assumed swing timer, i think it is correct) to get a 5.078% proc chance per occurrence (melee swing)

GC has a 20% proc chance every 4.5 seconds. 20/4.5 = 4.444% proc chance per occurrence (CS or HotR cast).

5.078/4.444 = 1.143, or 14.3% higher chance to proc per potential occurrence, assuming there is only one mob attacking us at the time with zero haste%

With my haste level (18.78%) I have a 3.79 second cooldown on CS.

20/3.79 = 5.278% chance per occurrence. So my chance to proc GC versus a single mob will drop by 3.919% (5.278/5.078)

Now, my math is rustier than a car that has been sitting in a scrap yard for a decade, have I done it right?

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:29 pm
by Kihra
Fetzie wrote:I think that comes to a higher proc rate of GC with 25% avoidance based on a 1.5 second swing timer than we currently get. Tell me if I'm doing it wrong:

I currently have 25.39% dodge + parry.
30% of that is 7.617%. Divide that by 1.5 (the assumed swing timer, i think it is correct) to get a 5.078% proc chance per occurrence (melee swing)

GC has a 20% proc chance every 4.5 seconds. 20/4.5 = 4.444% proc chance per occurrence (CS or HotR cast).

5.078/4.444 = 1.143, or 14.3% higher chance to proc per potential occurrence, assuming there is only one mob attacking us at the time.

Now, my math is rustier than a car that has been sitting in a scrap yard for a decade, have I done it right?


Don't forget you lose avoidance against a lvl 93 mob. In MoP this is 1.5% per level I believe (but someone correct me if I'm wrong). This means your actual avoidance against bosses is 9% lower than what you see on your paper doll.

Also, remember that as you stack Haste, the interval between GC procs goes down, right? In other words, you're not comparing against a 4.5 second CS... you're comparing against a haste-backed CS that is more likely 3.something seconds for someone who stacks Haste.

As far as I can tell, this is a straight up DPS nerf to single target and is never going to win vs. Haste. It also is a big nerf for bosses like Lei Shi, where we don't ever get hit. I'm not too happy about it for bosses like Sha either, where the 15% Haste buff in P1 no longer boosts GC and in the final phase he spends so much time doing other things like Huddle, Waterspout, Implacable, etc., and you'll be locked out from generating GC procs during that time.

Multi-mob tanking seems like it will be better with this change, but single target boss tanking just took a hit. :(

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:37 pm
by Fetzie
So assuming my math is correct (don't forget, BIG assumption), it would be more like a 7.3% proc chance nerf against a single target that is swinging once every 1.5 seconds.

Although, let's be honest, we've been bitching about multi-target threat for weeks now, and this looks like a multi-target threat/damage buff, and a (slight) nerf to our damage (through less AS) on a single-target encounter that melees regularly.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:38 pm
by KysenMurrin
Isn't the standard swing timer more like 2 seconds?

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:40 pm
by Fetzie
Don't know. Thought it was faster than 2 seconds though.

A quick look at a WoL for our last raid shows Elegon swinging every 1.5 seconds and blade-lord tayak swinging every 2.0 seconds. So I guess it varies between the two values depending on the boss.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:52 pm
by Taeron
Instead? Means no more GC procs when offtanking... Or on sparks at Elegon e.g.?

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:53 pm
by Fetzie
Nope. No more GC procs when you aren't tanking.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:54 pm
by Klaudandus
hmm... Well, that blows.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:55 pm
by Darielle
Standard swing timer is 1.5, with no attack speed modifiers existing anymore. Bunches of bosses vary, but that's the "standard" that mimics the old 2.0/2.4 thing.

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/7811252182#15 is my napkin math.
They changed the note to a 30% chance almost immediately.
Plus since we no longer have AS slows, we can assume 1.5 speed.
It'll come out roughly equivalent.

Assume 25% dodge/parry, and 30% chance and 1.5 swing speed, and 4 second CS cd.

Using a 12 second window, 3 CS = 0.8^3 = 0.512, or a 48.8% chance of at least 1 proc.
Using the same 12 second window, 8 swings = 0.925^8 = 0.536

Close enough.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:57 pm
by Fetzie
So...my math corroborates what you got?

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:02 pm
by Darielle
It'd be like 4.9% less procs on average against a 1.5 second target, assuming those values (25% avoidance for a tank with decent avoidance, 4 sec CD cd for a tank with decent Haste).
I'm at work, so spreadsheeting up/down I probably won't do for obvious reasons :P

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:09 pm
by Kihra
Darielle wrote:It'd be like 4.9% less procs on average against a 1.5 second target, assuming those values (25% avoidance for a tank with decent avoidance, 4 sec CD cd for a tank with decent Haste).
I'm at work, so spreadsheeting up/down I probably won't do for obvious reasons :P


I think 25% avoidance is a bit too high. Once you factor in that you lose 9% against a level 93, I think most people will have much lower than 25%. I know I'm sitting at more like 19% against a level 93, and that's even as someone who has taken Dodge/Parry pieces (plenty of pallies have skipped those pieces).

There are also many many places where you don't get hit, either because the boss is on your co-tank, or because the boss is just doing something other than melee. We will also no longer see more GC procs during boosted Haste periods like Heroism.

The fights that will see the biggest swing in the current tier with this change are Wind Lord and Empress (big buff because of add tanking probably), Lei Shi (big nerf because Lei Shi never melees), Sha (big nerf because 15% Haste buff no longer helps with GC procs in P1 and Dread Expanse time you don't tank that much and he spends lots of time doing specials). Stone Guard with two dogs will be a buff I suppose. The rest of the fights will be a DPS nerf.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:14 pm
by Fetzie
Sha of Fear does swing 4 times instantly with Thrash every 9 seconds though, and Dread Thrash is 6 swings (heroic mode) every 36 seconds. Surely they would skew the bit where you are tanking Sha in favour of avoidance GC?

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:17 pm
by Darielle
Fetzie wrote:Sha of Fear does swing 4 times instantly with Thrash every 9 seconds though, and Dread Thrash is 6 swings (heroic mode) every 36 seconds. Surely they would skew the bit where you are tanking Sha in favour of avoidance GC?


Not meaningfully. Those kinds of things are still worse than faster swings because 3/6 at once means you're getting into higher ratios of wasted procs, AND the interruptions from his specials still happen.

In fact, as Ahti(Branar) said in that thread, when you're AoE tanking, you start getting into a point where Haste becomes even more valuable because it'll also allow you to prevent procs being wasted during the gcd's by giving you a shorter gcd.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:23 pm
by Fetzie
Darielle wrote:
Fetzie wrote:Sha of Fear does swing 4 times instantly with Thrash every 9 seconds though, and Dread Thrash is 6 swings (heroic mode) every 36 seconds. Surely they would skew the bit where you are tanking Sha in favour of avoidance GC?


In fact, as Ahti(Branar) said in that thread, when you're AoE tanking, you start getting into a point where Haste becomes even more valuable because it'll also allow you to prevent procs being wasted during the gcd's by giving you a shorter gcd.


Hadn't thought about that.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:25 pm
by Sagara
In other words, business as usual, only that avoidance gets a 0.2 rating on AMR instead of 0.1... Let's see what Theck's maths will bring - it's too late at night, can't wrap my brains properly around statistics right now.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:27 pm
by Darielle
Sagara wrote:In other words, business as usual, only that avoidance gets a 0.2 rating on AMR instead of 0.1... Let's see what Theck's maths will bring - it's too late at night, can't wrap my brains properly around statistics right now.


It should state a nerf at all levels of Haste, because as Kihra pointed out, 25% avoidance is fairly high, and is NOT something someone would have while stacking Haste in any way (the discussion in that WoW thread was about stacking avoidance vs stacking haste)

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:55 pm
by Jadhzia
Another follow-up from GC:

Ghostcrawler wrote:No change to haste, dodge, parry or Sanctity of Battle. Grand Crusader changes to proc on dodge / parry to increase their value for active mitigation.

To address other concerns I've seen: yes, this is a small nerf to DPS when not the focused tank (and is similar to blocks for warriors). Yes, this improved Holy Power generation when AE tanking (but again is similar to Revenge for warriors, which hasn't been a gigantic balance problem). No, you shouldn't have to give up all your haste gear. This change should just let any dodge or parry you do accumulate be more attractive.


The comparison to warriors seems to make sense, but I don't play my warrior tank enough to be sure.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 12:07 am
by Sagara
Well, it has a non-zero effect on haste because we lose the Haste -> CS -> GC -> HoPo interaction, but it's going to be what? 10% of haste's HoPo generation? Haste still decreases CS's and J's cooldown, and on a minor note, still influences SS, SoI and Battle Healer.

Buffing Avoidance was a nice way to make it non-relevant, but it's only half of the problem, and actually the minor half. Gut feeling and rough guesstimations makes me think Haste is still strong as all hell, with no sign of letting up. I'm seriously worried that trying stuff around will only shorten the reaction time we'll have when the BIG haste nerf hits.

Let's talk hypothetics for a second - what happens when dodge/parry's value rise, everything else remaining equal? If they don't overshoot Haste, it's going to be business as usual - we'll keep working on Haste because the other alternatives are either too weak on spike management to be considered, regardless of TDR increase (Avoidance) or don't offer a strong value for the lost DPS opportunity (Mastery). But the moment Parry/Dodge overshoots Haste, then we're going to be gearing for control/avoidance, and Mastery will become the "dump stat" instead of Haste, for the same reason we don't gear for Mastery right now (i.e. not upside against the downside of lost dps)

Although, I'll admit this is hypothesis, with everything else remaining equal, which is far from a guarantee. We'd better have hard numbers before we start going on a limb.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:12 am
by Darielle
But the moment Parry/Dodge overshoots Haste, then we're going to be gearing for control/avoidance, and Mastery will become the "dump stat" instead of Haste, for the same reason we don't gear for Mastery right now (i.e. not upside against the downside of lost dps)


If we're at that point, we'd probably still go with Haste, because Haste would give easily more dps while still giving similar survivability (unless Dodge/Parry doesn't just overshoot it, it gets to the point where it eclipses it so hard that Haste would destroy sparkle).

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:15 am
by Nooska
I think this change does exactly what GC vaguely indicated. It raises the relative value of avoidance / lowers the relative value of haste. Not in any paradigm changing way, whihch would also be a hard knock to all the raiders out there that gear smart.
Also "This change should just let any dodge or parry you do accumulate be more attractive." seems to sum it up.

I could think that the change to GC procs would make mastery better than haste in the calculations that Theck does for the weights though (as haste now contributes less to HoPo gains).

Oh and I'll agree with a Woot! - Its nice that a simple change suggested by the rational part of the community can be lifted more or less verbatim and used. It could be a "Okay lets do as they suggest and watch them fry in their own fat when itdoesn't work" - but thats just the tiny paranoid, conspiracy theory loving, part of the reptillian brain. In all actuality I think its because it made sense, and does what they wanted to do on the small scale.

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:18 am
by Skye1013
Wait... you mean they actually listened to the community?!??!!1?

/endoftheworld

Re: patch 5.2 ?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:38 am
by KysenMurrin
They do listen to players from time to time. In fact listening to players too much is what got the Warlock dev reassigned. :lol: