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Postby Dorvan » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:11 am

jere wrote:Dorvan, that is like the oldest stats joke in the book. I wouldn't take it seriously. :)

If he is serious for some really odd reason, then smack him around a bit till he gets some sense :)


You'd think people would know better, but look at how long some people have argued that .999.... != 1 :P
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Postby Skwigelf » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:11 am

Lypianus wrote:Actually, each run has an independent 11% chance to drop the FotC. Successive runs do not change the chance on any individual run.

So if you run the instance 100 times, your chance of seeing the FotC on run #101 is still 11%.

Same for flippng a coin. If I flip a coin heads, the next flip has a 50% chance to be heads again, etc etc.

Every run has that same crappy 11% chance.


If you really want to get technical its like 16.666666666666667%.

Kargath has 12 items in his loot table in regular SH. IIRC he drops 2 Items when he dies.

I'm probably wrong as I only ever ran the instance once, having gotten my FotC on the first run.
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Postby Arcand » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:11 am

Lypianus wrote:Actually, each run has an independent 11% chance to drop the FotC. Successive runs do not change the chance on any individual run.

So if you run the instance 100 times, your chance of seeing the FotC on run #101 is still 11%.

Same for flippng a coin. If I flip a coin heads, the next flip has a 50% chance to be heads again, etc etc.

Every run has that same crappy 11% chance.


Still, if you haven't gotten it after ten runs, you're entitled to feel bummed at getting less than the mathematically-expected number of drops.
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Postby Skwigelf » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:15 am

Dorvan wrote:
jere wrote:Dorvan, that is like the oldest stats joke in the book. I wouldn't take it seriously. :)

If he is serious for some really odd reason, then smack him around a bit till he gets some sense :)


You'd think people would know better, but look at how long some people have argued that .999.... != 1 :P


I used to be on the dumb side of that argument. Even after seeing the equation that proves 0.999~ = 1.

But the difference is infinitely small! So small it cant be measured by mathematical numbers! The human mind can't grasp the concept of infinity! It has no limits, man! Those 9's just keep going and going forever!

Then someone asked the simple question:

What is the number between 0.999~ and 1? 0.000~1? If that is so then the "1" in that number doesn't exist as the "0"'s are infinite. Therefore you are left with 0.000~ or in layman's terms, 0.

My world got flipped turned upside down...
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Postby Spectrum » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:18 am

It still sucks not to get the drop, especially when it's something like FotC that has a one-off effect. If you want to do some crazy AE tanking of lower-level mobs you need FotC to do it effectively. It can practically double the number of mobs you can take on.

Same problem with some of the Librams. Thank god Libram of Repentance isn't a 1/8 drop or we'd have a lot of pallies gimped on uncrushability.
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Postby jere » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:45 am

Dorvan wrote:
jere wrote:Dorvan, that is like the oldest stats joke in the book. I wouldn't take it seriously. :)

If he is serious for some really odd reason, then smack him around a bit till he gets some sense :)


You'd think people would know better, but look at how long some people have argued that .999.... != 1 :P


Well, to be fair, some of the solutions out there were done incorrectly. That doesn't help the case for the argument. I think I saw one correctly done algorithm way back when, but it has been a long time.
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Postby balrogg » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:47 am

Skwigelf wrote:
Dorvan wrote:
jere wrote:Dorvan, that is like the oldest stats joke in the book. I wouldn't take it seriously. :)

If he is serious for some really odd reason, then smack him around a bit till he gets some sense :)


You'd think people would know better, but look at how long some people have argued that .999.... != 1 :P


I used to be on the dumb side of that argument. Even after seeing the equation that proves 0.999~ = 1.

But the difference is infinitely small! So small it cant be measured by mathematical numbers! The human mind can't grasp the concept of infinity! It has no limits, man! Those 9's just keep going and going forever!

Then someone asked the simple question:

What is the number between 0.999~ and 1? 0.000~1? If that is so then the "1" in that number doesn't exist as the "0"'s are infinite. Therefore you are left with 0.000~ or in layman's terms, 0.

My world got flipped turned upside down...


incidentally, i dont believe .999... = 1, simply because you are comparing an estimate to a whole number. the most common "proof" ive seen is:

1/3 = .333~
2/3 = .666~
thus
3/3 = .999~ = 1

however, the flaw is not whether or not they are equal, rather that .333~ is just the best estimate we can give for 1/3 with our number system, thus we have to accept that the above is true since we have no way to "show" the difference. but, isnt this the same thing as a limit that approaches 0? it gets inifintely close, but doesnt actually get there. look at it this way:

.9 is .1 less that 1.0
.09 is .01 less than .1
.009 is .001 less than .01

in the infinate sense, you are simply adding .9 + .09 + .009 etc, which is getting inifintely closer to 1, but is not reaching it. granted, this is more number concept v number math, but it just exploits a flaw in the number system as a whole.

anyway, im not really arguing 1 way or another, basically, its accepted that .9~ = 1 for all calculation purposes due to the way we write out fractions, but conceptually, its hard to prove they are one in the same.

/tangent
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Postby moduspwnens » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:49 am

you guys are dumb. Good luck on your trinket. I'd normally say this goes in a QQ thread somewhere, but 100 runs later, you deserve your own thread... even it is derailed by math geeks.
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Postby Arcand » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:51 am

balrogg wrote:which is getting inifintely closer to 1, but is not reaching it.


I humbly submit that you aren't giving infinity enough credit. :)
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Postby Spectrum » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:54 am

Let's not get into this debate about the the nature of 1, it is a long, dark path on which many have lost their sanity or more.
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Postby Arcand » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:56 am

"The internet is a series of long, dark paths."
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Postby moduspwnens » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:57 am

So what happens when you divide by zero?
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Postby jere » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:57 am

balrogg wrote:
incidentally, i dont believe .999... = 1, simply because you are comparing an estimate to a whole number. the most common "proof" ive seen is:

1/3 = .333~
2/3 = .666~
thus
3/3 = .999~ = 1

however, the flaw is not whether or not they are equal, rather that .333~ is just the best estimate we can give for 1/3 with our number system, thus we have to accept that the above is true since we have no way to "show" the difference. but, isnt this the same thing as a limit that approaches 0? it gets inifintely close, but doesnt actually get there. look at it this way:


Actually the flaw with this algorithm is that mathematically you cannot add infinitely long numbers, so you can never say .3333~ + .6666~ = .9999~

It is ok to say from a practicality standpoint, but for strict mathematics, you cannot add indefinitely long numbers in that notation because their length is undefined. You can add 1/3 and 2/3 though as those are fractional notation and have a fixed, known length.
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Postby Arcand » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:58 am

So what happens when you divide by zero?


You create Chuck Norris.
Last edited by Arcand on Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Dorvan » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:58 am

balrogg wrote:however, the flaw is not whether or not they are equal, rather that .333~ is just the best estimate we can give for 1/3 with our number system, thus we have to accept that the above is true since we have no way to "show" the difference.


No, it's not merely a best estimate (though any finite truncation of it is merely an estimate). As Arcand said, you're not giving infinity enough credit :P

(mods, feel free to shoot me now >.<)
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