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Postby agamemnoch » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:13 am

I guess now's not the time to say I got it on my very first SH run, non heroic, and most of my party died multiple times along the way. I was 70 and running for that trinket. I AoEd most of the mobs down, 2 healers (1 shammy who was there for DPS just sat back after he saw the first packs downed and healed me)

I was at 400 health when I got bladefist down and had to res my party. They were saying that they really hoped my trinket fell after I had to solo him down, pretty much.
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Postby balrogg » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:32 am

the beauty of a random loot system is that percentages dont REALLY mean all that much, since random is random. technically, you can go 1000 times without seeing it. just like i farmed mc (including instance cascading) for around a year and a half, and saw 0 geddon bindings, 0 eye of sulfuras, 1 bonereavers edge, and about 23508469023486 vendorstrikes.
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Postby Skwigelf » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:38 am

Everything has 50/50 odds. You're either going to get FotC or you're not.

The New England Patriots are either going to go 16-0 again this year or they're not.

Some old lady will either win the $10M Vegas Slots Jackpot on her next pull or she wont.

Everything that can be broken down to "will/wont" is 50/50.
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Postby Arcand » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:39 am

I'm pretty sure I was in a room with a bunch of math people once and one of them said something contrary to this. :)
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Postby Kivas » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:42 am

Skwigelf wrote:Everything has 50/50 odds. You're either going to get FotC or you're not.

The New England Patriots are either going to go 16-0 again this year or they're not.

Some old lady will either win the $10M Vegas Slots Jackpot on her next pull or she wont.

Everything that can be broken down to "will/wont" is 50/50.


think i heardit as everything is a 50/50 Chance... the odds are 50 to 1
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Postby Spectrum » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:43 am

I'm in a similar boat. I think I've done 8-10 runs without a drop, but I'm not stressing.

There are a few things to take into account:

The chance of getting it on your next run is still 1/8. Past events do not affect the future outcomes. E.g. they're all independent.

When you have a lot of items you're looking for specifically then you're likely to have at least one of them go MIA. For example, if over your whole WoW career there were 10 items with a 1/8 drop that you were too stubborn to let go, then there is a 53% chance that at least one of them wouldn't drop in 20 runs. Yeah, that means if you're the stubborn type you can expect to do at least 20 runs of for that item you really really want. Just think back to all the items you got on your first run.

The moral of the story is to hedge your bets, which is much easier with things that have equivalent badge rewards or simply have good alternatives. Unfortunately trinkets and relics can have some pretty neat one-off effects that make it necessary to grind them.

Good luck!
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Postby Kivas » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:45 am

on topic. I went on a binge where the only thing i ran was Shattered halls. Normal/heroic and kara, and nothing else. it must have been close to 50-60 runs before i finaly got it to drop... seen it drop 3 times since.
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Postby Dorvan » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:45 am

Skwigelf wrote:Everything has 50/50 odds. You're either going to get FotC or you're not.

The New England Patriots are either going to go 16-0 again this year or they're not.

Some old lady will either win the $10M Vegas Slots Jackpot on her next pull or she wont.

Everything that can be broken down to "will/wont" is 50/50.


/mathfacepalm
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Postby Skwigelf » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:47 am

See? People either WILL agree with me, or they WONT.

Fiddy fiddy.
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Postby Dorvan » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:48 am

Skwigelf wrote:See? People either WILL agree with me, or they WONT.

Fiddy fiddy.


I guarantee you that if you post math like that, the breakdown of positive/negative comments won't be 50/50

On the other hand, I'll bet you $1000 that New York won't be invaded by 50 foot tall reptiles this year. Since apparently the chances of that are 50/50 it's a fair bet, right?
Last edited by Dorvan on Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Arcand » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:49 am

I'd sermonize about binary distributions, but I'm about 90% certain he's being ironic.
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Postby Dorvan » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:51 am

Arcand wrote:I'd sermonize about binary distributions, but I'm about 90% certain he's being ironic.


Sarcastic, not ironic. Anyway, you're probably right...but I've seen so much bad math seriously posted on the internet that my sarcasm detector is a bit broken on the subject.
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Postby Arcand » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:52 am

Try your irony detector. ;)
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Postby jere » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:01 am

Dorvan, that is like the oldest stats joke in the book. I wouldn't take it seriously. :)

If he is serious for some really odd reason, then smack him around a bit till he gets some sense :)
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Postby Lypianus » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:05 am

Actually, each run has an independent 11% chance to drop the FotC. Successive runs do not change the chance on any individual run.

So if you run the instance 100 times, your chance of seeing the FotC on run #101 is still 11%.

Same for flippng a coin. If I flip a coin heads, the next flip has a 50% chance to be heads again, etc etc.

Every run has that same crappy 11% chance.
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