114,941 to 1

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114,941 to 1

Postby Travatron » Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:46 pm

After just finishing my 100th Shattered Halls run, those are my odds of never even seeing the Figurine of the Collosus. It's 99.99913% likely that I would have seen one by now at an 11% drop rate.

QQ, Random loot is Random.

But I mean... Really? C'mon
114,941:1
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Postby Arcand » Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:47 pm

Nine million subscribers divided by 114,941 = 78.3.

So there are about seventy-seven people worldwide having even worse loot luck than you are. ;)
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Re: 114,941 to 1

Postby guillex » Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:48 pm

Travatron wrote:After just finishing my 100th Shattered Halls run, those are my odds of never even seeing the Figurine of the Collosus. It's 99.99913% likely that I would have seen one by now at an 11% drop rate.

QQ, Random loot is Random.

But I mean... Really? C'mon
114,941:1


That means there's still a .00087% chance you will never see it at 100 runs with an 11% drop rate ...

And we all know how the RNG works.

Try tweaking what time your first party member zones in at.
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Postby Arcand » Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:48 pm

Druid group leader = figurine always drops.
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Postby guillex » Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:49 pm

Arcand wrote:Nine million subscribers divided by 114,941 = 78.3.

So there are about seventy-seven people worldwide having even worse loot luck than you are. ;)


Actually, it's just over a million more than that, bud. Or had you not heard that they've broken the 10million mark?
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Postby Dorvan » Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:50 pm

...and if you want to be extra sure, I've got a [Talisman of Treasure Enhancement] I'm selling at a very reasonable price.
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Postby Arcand » Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:52 pm

Guillex wrote:Actually, it's just over a million more than that, bud. Or had you not heard that they've broken the 10million mark?


A million of them are cybering in Goldshire and have never run an instance, so they have undefined loot luck.
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Postby honorshammer » Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:02 pm

"Never tell me the odds" - Han Solo, Episode V
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Re: 114,941 to 1

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:10 pm

Travatron wrote:After just finishing my 100th Shattered Halls run, those are my odds of never even seeing the Figurine of the Collosus. It's 99.99913% likely that I would have seen one by now at an 11% drop rate.

QQ, Random loot is Random.

But I mean... Really? C'mon
114,941:1



/waves a dead chicken over the series of tubes

It will drop on your next run. I guarantee it!
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Postby Baelor » Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:19 pm

Honorshammer wrote:"Never tell me the odds" - Han Solo, Episode V

"But sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1!" - C-3PO, Episode V

Just to counterpoint Honors, and because it's the first thing I thought of when I saw the post title.
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Postby $hOTty » Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:23 pm

You don't know?

For it to drop you need to be exalted with Thrallmar/Honor Hold, kill him within the timer, and to have the drop chance doubled you need a paladin and a shaman in the group that need to /hug the boss at the same time.

Sound familiar?
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Postby moduspwnens » Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:28 pm

That sucks, man.
I rule.
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Re: 114,941 to 1

Postby Hankthetank » Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:44 pm

Travatron wrote:After just finishing my 100th Shattered Halls run, those are my odds of never even seeing the Figurine of the Collosus. It's 99.99913% likely that I would have seen one by now at an 11% drop rate.

QQ, Random loot is Random.

But I mean... Really? C'mon
114,941:1


The sad thing is, you aren't even one in a million.
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Postby Dorvan » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:00 pm

Also, keep in mind that that's just for one item. In reality, people who PvE farm instances for 10s of items....so having "that one item" that simply won't drop is even more common than that. If there are say, 15 items you're farming for...the odds that at least one will not drop in 100 runs of the appropriate instance are more than 1 in 1000.
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Postby Arcand » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:02 pm

I believe the actual probability was 4,727 to 1.

Now that I've committed myself, I'll go look it up.
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