Politics (formerly Election 2012)

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Re: Election 2012

Postby Koatanga » Tue Sep 11, 2012 9:40 pm

I believe you'll find that's because many of the big names backing the Romney share their surnames with board members and shareholders of many of the civilian companies that supply the military.

Romney likes the trickle-down theory, and if he can cause it to trickle down the companies of his backers, then the more the merrier.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Fivelives » Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:20 am

Regarding veteran hiring: http://www.dol.gov/vets/ (federal/state jobs)
http://www.uschamber.com/hiringourheroes/events (here's a list of "career fairs" with a map showing them)

Not to mention there's a chapter of the GI bill focused entirely on vocational rehabilitation, and a bunch of other local/federal programs. You can do more than just flip burgers or be a McManager.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Brekkie » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:34 am

I'm veeeeeeeeery interested to see how this situation in Cairo and Benghazi plays out.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Melathys » Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:21 pm

Fivelives wrote:Regarding veteran hiring: http://www.dol.gov/vets/ (federal/state jobs)
http://www.uschamber.com/hiringourheroes/events (here's a list of "career fairs" with a map showing them)

Not to mention there's a chapter of the GI bill focused entirely on vocational rehabilitation, and a bunch of other local/federal programs. You can do more than just flip burgers or be a McManager.


On that note. https://www.usajobs.gov/
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Skye1013 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:03 pm

I didn't say there aren't jobs out there, but if you're planning to cut >90% of the force, you're going to be fighting a lot of people for those jobs. I can guarantee you none of those hiring programs can cover that big an influx of people.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Sep 12, 2012 8:30 pm

Brekkie wrote:A big part of the problem with Defense cuts is that most lawmakers see Defense spending as a form of "safe" pork.
It's pork that is desired by "us" unfortunately. While lawmakers are certainly responsible, ultimately the bulk of the blame belongs on us and the system we support. We support those that give us the tit and oust those that don't.

I haven't heard a serious candidate as yet make a realistic pitch at what is going to be required to solve our debt issues, and I doubt I ever will.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby tinalt » Wed Sep 12, 2012 8:47 pm

lol, speaking of throwing more money away on defense. only decent part of this plan is the potential manning increase.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Cogglamp » Thu Sep 13, 2012 5:53 pm

Really Ben, QE3? Not only does this repurchase of packaged securities really only benefit those on the fringe and isn't going to get at the core of our anemic growth, why do I get this sinking feeling reading the monetary easing will continue without any limit to the size of the easing?

Argh...just . . . argh!
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Skye1013 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 8:02 pm

Cogglamp wrote:Really Ben, QE3? Not only does this repurchase of packaged securities really only benefit those on the fringe and isn't going to get at the core of our anemic growth, why do I get this sinking feeling reading the monetary easing will continue without any limit to the size of the easing?

Argh...just . . . argh!

?



I hope that makes sense to someone else, because I'm completely lost.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Brekkie » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:15 pm

Well.... Ben Bernanke is the chairman of the Federal Reserve...
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Skye1013 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 10:00 pm

Might just be the grammar (or lack thereof) that is losing me.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Malthrax » Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:27 am

Skye1013 wrote:Might just be the grammar (or lack thereof) that is losing me.


The Federal Reserve has started their 3rd round of "legalized counterfeiting" of U.S. currency - printing billions of dollars (face value) of worthless bills in order to buy up mortgage bonds in an attempt to (re-)kick-start the economy.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Nooska » Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:47 am

Isn't it just basic Keynesian economics?
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Cogglamp » Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:07 am

Quantitative Easing = QE; we're now on our third round of QE with the first two having done little for the economy

packaged securities = portfolios of assets bundled together and sold in the market place as one big bond issuance; assets can include credit card debt, auto loans, student loans, residential loans, commercial real estate loans, (think anything with term with a defined payment schedule)

the fringe = Generally Wall Street/high finance firms as they're the only ones selling packaged securities. The hope is that QE frees up capital that has been otherwise held against the securities that have been marked down due to "mark to market" accounting. This will let financial firms recoup the notional value of the debt which frees up the capital being held against it as well which would then be re-invested back into the economy. Basically, it's a giant liquidity event for the firms holding the securities, ie they get paid 100 cents on an asset that was marked down at something significantly less than 100 cents.

without limit = This is the first time that the Reserve has said they will continue to do this until they find the job situation to be acceptable. In previous versions of QE, the Fed stated how much they were going to inject into the market. Now, they're pushing that a side and saying they're going to do it until they're satisfied with the outcome.

Understanding nomenclature is half the battle when it comes to finance talk.

Basically, the whole QE things is hogwash to me and I work in the financial sector. It's a way of supporting asset prices, which for many sectors, I'd argue are in an asset bubble (overly inflated). Coupled with historically and exceedingly low interest rates, we're putting ourselves in a situation where the de-leveraging that we've been going through over the past 4 years has a chance of repeating itself all over again.

Long and short of it:

The recovery of debt asset prices does not help the overall economy in my opinion.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Fivelives » Sun Sep 16, 2012 12:15 am

I had QE explained to me as "printing more money to make people think the dollar is doing fine, when in reality just printing the money actually hurts the value".

Accurate?
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Dantriges » Sun Sep 16, 2012 12:30 am

Do I understand that correctly that it´s basically paying the finance sector the nominal value for their bad loans which are still in the books and were more or less written off?

How can I get the government to pay my debts, too? :mrgreen:

Isn´t the european central bank doing something similar, too at the moment?

IIRC quite a few 3rd world countries crashed their economy pretty hard when they turned to printing money to pay their bills/debts and that seems to be more or less the same just under another name.

Uh well If I were Obama I would probably decline to run a second term and run for the hills.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Fridmarr » Sun Sep 16, 2012 12:40 am

Fivelives wrote:I had QE explained to me as "printing more money to make people think the dollar is doing fine, when in reality just printing the money actually hurts the value".

Accurate?


It's printing more money but that's not the reason. The fed knows that QE lowers the dollar's value and so they aren't trying to make the dollar look better, they are trying to get cash into the hands of groups who have their cash tied up in assets that they can't unload (mortgage backed securities).

The fed normally tries to increase liquidity by keeping interest rates low, but they've been really low for a really long time (housing bubble anyone?) and so there's not much they can do on that end, so they just "print" more money. In theory it's a little bit different than simply printing money because the distribution is targeted. The fed uses it to buy those assets that companies can't cash out on (at their original value instead of the current value) then the fed is supposed to sell those assets back and wipe out the printed cash to reverse the effects of QE when the economy is healthy and the value of those assets has rebounded.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Fivelives » Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:30 am

But you can't target an influx of money into an economy. It'll never stay where you put it, unless you're putting it in your mattress or burying it out in the back 40 in a mason jar.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Fridmarr » Sun Sep 16, 2012 8:31 am

Right, that's not what I mean by targeted. The Fed wants the money to move, in fact that is the whole purpose. They want those financial institutions to have the liquid cash to be able to invest etc. It's targeted because it's aimed at institutions that have certain types of assets. At the moment it's mortgage backed securities, which hopefully can bounce back in value a bit over time.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Nooska » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:55 am

Actually, printing more money doesn't devalue the money for most currencies (its the resulting loss of faith in the issuer that they can't back up the worth).

It did devalue the currencies back when we had currencies based on gold (or silver - pound sterling, was exactly that - 1lbs of sterling silver). Todays currencies are (almost?) all based on faith and trust, and faith and trust alone - if you say your eggs are woth 1$US, and the rest of us agree that that is a fair valuation of your eggs, the dollar doesn't buy less eggs because more dollar bills are printed - the monetary bills are all basically IOUs issued by the government, that we trade with eachothe r(whethere using actual notes or virtual currency transactions).
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Shoju » Mon Sep 17, 2012 6:27 am

This is just an amusement really, but I saw a new Super PAC Ad this weekend supporting Romney that made me laugh hysterically.

It talks about "500,000 jobs lost in manufacturing under Obama", and how "Those same jobs increased in China, and for the first time they are beating us." and that "Romney will get tough with the cheaters in China, unlike Obama".

Now, I'm not weighing in on whether or not this did or didn't happen. I'm weighing in, because of the basis of the ad. Romney? Tough on China? The man who built his fortune running a "Chop Shop" (terrible term, but accurate) on companies? Romney, the man who made his fortune with a company that bought manufacturing businesses, gutted them, and shipped their jobs out of the country?

REALLY!?

I.... Don't believe one word of that.

And then, calling China a Cheater? How did they Cheat? What game were we playing? I just... Cheater? Really? I lol'd really hard and long at that one.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Koatanga » Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:11 pm

Nooska wrote:Actually, printing more money doesn't devalue the money for most currencies (its the resulting loss of faith in the issuer that they can't back up the worth).

It did devalue the currencies back when we had currencies based on gold (or silver - pound sterling, was exactly that - 1lbs of sterling silver). Todays currencies are (almost?) all based on faith and trust, and faith and trust alone - if you say your eggs are woth 1$US, and the rest of us agree that that is a fair valuation of your eggs, the dollar doesn't buy less eggs because more dollar bills are printed - the monetary bills are all basically IOUs issued by the government, that we trade with eachothe r(whethere using actual notes or virtual currency transactions).

But if a country prints up a lot more currency, faith in that currency plummets, and it's not worth as much. It's not like the people of Zimbabwe are all billionaires now.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Skye1013 » Mon Sep 17, 2012 6:02 pm

It's part of the problem in Greece right now, they can't devalue their currency (because it isn't just their currency) in order to try and get out of their rut. Not to say it would fix the economy, but it likely would have slowed the descent.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Nooska » Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:00 am

Koatanga wrote:
Nooska wrote:Actually, printing more money doesn't devalue the money for most currencies (its the resulting loss of faith in the issuer that they can't back up the worth).

It did devalue the currencies back when we had currencies based on gold (or silver - pound sterling, was exactly that - 1lbs of sterling silver). Todays currencies are (almost?) all based on faith and trust, and faith and trust alone - if you say your eggs are woth 1$US, and the rest of us agree that that is a fair valuation of your eggs, the dollar doesn't buy less eggs because more dollar bills are printed - the monetary bills are all basically IOUs issued by the government, that we trade with eachothe r(whethere using actual notes or virtual currency transactions).

But if a country prints up a lot more currency, faith in that currency plummets, and it's not worth as much. It's not like the people of Zimbabwe are all billionaires now.

Agreed, but its the result of faith in the currency (or lack of), not the amount of units of currency (I have no idea what Zimbabwe calls their currency).

Also the reason the euro has taken a downward spiral - there is less faith in the currency (due to Greece, and to a lesser degree Spain and Italy) - there is a reason that 2 out of 3 germans (according to a study I saw just today) miss the old Deutsch Mark - depsite not having any currency related problems in germany specifically.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Cogglamp » Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:18 am

Nooska wrote:
Koatanga wrote:
Nooska wrote:Actually, printing more money doesn't devalue the money for most currencies (its the resulting loss of faith in the issuer that they can't back up the worth).

It did devalue the currencies back when we had currencies based on gold (or silver - pound sterling, was exactly that - 1lbs of sterling silver). Todays currencies are (almost?) all based on faith and trust, and faith and trust alone - if you say your eggs are woth 1$US, and the rest of us agree that that is a fair valuation of your eggs, the dollar doesn't buy less eggs because more dollar bills are printed - the monetary bills are all basically IOUs issued by the government, that we trade with eachothe r(whethere using actual notes or virtual currency transactions).

But if a country prints up a lot more currency, faith in that currency plummets, and it's not worth as much. It's not like the people of Zimbabwe are all billionaires now.

Agreed, but its the result of faith in the currency (or lack of), not the amount of units of currency (I have no idea what Zimbabwe calls their currency).

Also the reason the euro has taken a downward spiral - there is less faith in the currency (due to Greece, and to a lesser degree Spain and Italy) - there is a reason that 2 out of 3 germans (according to a study I saw just today) miss the old Deutsch Mark - depsite not having any currency related problems in germany specifically.


Germany would be a fool to want the old Deutsche Mark back. They've been reaping the benefits of having a comparatively undervalued currency (the Euro) to base their export bonanza on.

Italy, Spain, and Portugal are in a world of hurt. There are signs of Germany's growth beginning to flag and France is stuck in neutral as M. Francois Hollande is beginning to face reality of his country's financial issues.

The EU can't get out of its own way. Say what you will about US banks, but European banks have been bad at marking down assets and in turn getting rid of them. The stress tests that they've put themselves through are laughable and even then, they continue to fail them. US banks have been shedding assets, both good and bad, to shore up their Tier 1 capital reserves to get ready for Basel requirements. European banks are languishing because they are reluctant to take the bitter pill called de-leveraging. The exception has been Ireland as they've done an admirable job at trying to flush bad debt off their balance sheets.

Look at a Japan and their banking crisis from the 90s. They didn't want to take their lumps and many analysts are pointing to that and connecting it to their anemic growth over the past 20 years.

Bad loans got us into this mess. Not the lack of regulation. The only way to get ourselves out of it is to properly write down the debt, take the losses, and move on. There's a metric ton of capital waiting for European banks to actually begin shedding assets because as we've seen in the US, there are lots of opportunities imbedded in the assets. Until this happens, you're going to have reluctant financial institutions not wanting to take on additional risk in the form of new loans/credit due to the reserves they have to hold against assets that are well below their notional value.

US banks are in a comparatively good spot right now. Outside of Canada's financial institutions, US banks are the strongest of the bunch.
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