Politics (formerly Election 2012)

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Tue May 06, 2014 10:02 am

Civil war is anything but civil.


Of course, but how one handles it is paramount to achieving stability after that.

Vladimir Putin, for one. Case in point, Second Chechen War.


I would hardly call the Chechens his people honestly. They had been independent for close to a decade, had fought and won a war with Russia in 94-96 and had gone into complete chaos following that war.

That said Chechnya would still have fallen into chaos if not for the fact Putin realized what was needed to stabilize, and stabilize it he did: While America's policies in Iraq and Afghanistan were failing hard Chechnya became more and more peaceful and stable. He also spent about 60 billion to rebuild it following the war and was smart enough to realize only a local could hold the peace so to speak.

In contrast to that what's happening in E. Ukraine could have been avoided.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Nooska » Tue May 06, 2014 11:40 am

Io.Draco wrote:In contrast to that what's happening in E. Ukraine could have been avoided.

How?

You keep saying this, but the only option you've give is for the acknowledged governement of a sovereign state (Ukraine) to not claim the state's boundaries and sovereigncy.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Tue May 06, 2014 1:33 pm

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderic ... nnexation/

To make sure no one misses this:

Official Kremlin results: 97 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and 82 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

President’s Human Rights Council mid-point estimate: 55 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 40 percent, 22.5 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

A member of the Human Rights Council, Svetlana Gannushkina, talked about election fraud on Kanal 24 (as replayed on Ukrainian television), declaring that the Crimean vote “discredited Russia more than could be dreamed up by a foreign agent.”
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Tue May 06, 2014 2:31 pm

Klaudandus wrote:http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/05/05/putins-human-rights-council-accidentally-posts-real-crimean-election-results-only-15-voted-for-annexation/

To make sure no one misses this:

Official Kremlin results: 97 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and 82 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

President’s Human Rights Council mid-point estimate: 55 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 40 percent, 22.5 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

A member of the Human Rights Council, Svetlana Gannushkina, talked about election fraud on Kanal 24 (as replayed on Ukrainian television), declaring that the Crimean vote “discredited Russia more than could be dreamed up by a foreign agent.”

For some perspective:

2000 US Presidential election:

47.87% of popular vote for Bush, turnout 50.3%, 24% of total eligible voters voting for Bush. It was enough to elect a President.

Also keep in mind that for a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of 1% you only need to poll 9500 people out of a population of 1 million. 55% of 40 percent of registered voters gives you a confidence interval of around 0.1 at 95% confidence level. It's statistically significant.

I am not saying the Kremlin results are accurate, but even if you take the Human Rights Council vote as gospel (and as they say, figures don't lie but liars can figure), it's still a majority vote with a very high degree of statistical confidence.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby KysenMurrin » Tue May 06, 2014 3:07 pm

...If you assume turnout was evenly spread among demographics, and ignore the fact that a significant opposed minority actively boycotted the poll.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Tue May 06, 2014 3:52 pm

KysenMurrin wrote:...If you assume turnout was evenly spread among demographics, and ignore the fact that a significant opposed minority actively boycotted the poll.


Even if every Tatar boycotted it, which is nonsense, you would still be able to get the results. As for the ethnic Ukranians living in Crimea most are in favor of being in Russia.

How?

You keep saying this, but the only option you've give is for the acknowledged governement of a sovereign state (Ukraine) to not claim the state's boundaries and sovereigncy.


Before Crimea they could have worked to assure the East they will respect their ethnic rights, instead they spat on them with the Rada vote. After Crimea they could have sat down and negotiated with people to see what they want: Namely greater autonomy and federalization, instead they branded them terrorists.

There's plenty of things they could have done but they didn't.

Klaudandus: Oh let's quote a neo-conservative on Forbes who has made Putin to be akin to the devil who is citing a UKRANIAN news post. Just reading who wrote that article is enough for me to dismiss him, and you should to if you read any of his other articles. Also even if the report existed then it just an estimate. How many of the human rights council even gave a damn to send observers during the vote?

You don't think 80% of people can go vote when the very future of their country is on the line? Presidential elections are one thing and most people don't think a change of leadership will matter, joining another country? It sure as fuck matters.

Look at South Sudan turnout.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Brekkie » Tue May 06, 2014 5:08 pm

fuzzygeek wrote:http://ktla.com/2014/05/05/rialto-assignment-asking-to-students-to-question-holocaust-to-be-revised/#axzz30sp8CKDK

Are you serial?

Interim Superintendent Mohammad Z. Islam was set to talk with administrators to “assure that any references to the holocaust ‘not occurring’ will be stricken on any current or future Argumentative Research assignments,” a statement from district spokeswoman Syeda Jafri read.


Optics on this are amazing. I thought it was an Onion article.


That article pissed me off because it strongly implied that the holocaust-denial assignment was somehow connected to the Common Core. Which is totally false.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Tue May 06, 2014 5:15 pm

KysenMurrin wrote:...If you assume turnout was evenly spread among demographics, and ignore the fact that a significant opposed minority actively boycotted the poll.


Boycotting a poll - are they unclear of the concept of democracy? Not being facetious, I just want to know why they would cede the election result to the opposition like that. "I'm opposed to what they want to do so I'm going to make them win the poll." Lolwut? Makes no sense to me whatsoever.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Tue May 06, 2014 5:32 pm

Brekkie wrote:That article pissed me off because it strongly implied that the holocaust-denial assignment was somehow connected to the Common Core. Which is totally false.

For what it's worth I didn't understand it that way at all. What I got from the article is that Common Core requires students to make and defend an argument, which I am completely fine with as I believe critical thinking should be taught in schools.

What offended me was purely the subject chosen by the district. What idiot decided to make it about religion? The topic is rich in subjects from "is the moon landing faked" to "who really shot Kennedy" to the existence of one of a plethora of cryptids to life on other planets.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby KysenMurrin » Wed May 07, 2014 12:37 am

Koatanga wrote:
KysenMurrin wrote:...If you assume turnout was evenly spread among demographics, and ignore the fact that a significant opposed minority actively boycotted the poll.


Boycotting a poll - are they unclear of the concept of democracy? Not being facetious, I just want to know why they would cede the election result to the opposition like that. "I'm opposed to what they want to do so I'm going to make them win the poll." Lolwut? Makes no sense to me whatsoever.

Participation conveys legitimacy. They weren't protesting the cause, they were protesting the process.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Wed May 07, 2014 5:59 pm

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby fuzzygeek » Wed May 07, 2014 6:10 pm

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The White House's ability to conduct foreign policy via hash tags is nothing less than astounding.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fivelives » Wed May 07, 2014 6:29 pm

To be fair, the first lady has zero power other than the president's ear (and bed).
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Nooska » Fri May 09, 2014 3:15 am

Fivelives wrote:To be fair, the first lady has zero power other than the president's ear (and bed).

Zero constitutional power, but lets be fair here, constitutional power isn't all that important in regards to policy; its the ability to formulate an argument and present it in a way that persuades people. If the first lady wanted to say something, which news agancey would turn her down, just because she formally isn't anything but someone that lives in the white house and shares the bed of the president?

Media access is more important these days than formal power; and not being a politician means you don't get bogged down in actual partisanship when talking to media.

And while it may be a little tame for a lot of political observers (like most anyone in this thread), don't ignore the fact that its a very acute statement, very precise, and very sympathetic - why do much more than that? this lets the story spin instead, and gathers a lot more suppoort than any 20 minute talking head interview with details etc - this is what the first lady position can be VERY good at.


(and on the ukraninan discussion, I give up; Io.Draco - I'll discount you as a troll for the rest of this discussion - either you have no grasp on the realities of the situation or you are actively taking a side and not discussing but propagandizing. (or as suggested earlier trying to bait out sensitive information, but like previously your long association with this board makes me question that too much to run with it, so just mentioning it for completenss sake))
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fivelives » Fri May 09, 2014 5:47 am

The media can't exactly do anything to get those kidnapped kids back, and the US has a longstanding policy of refusing to negotiate with terrorists. So again, Mrs. Obama has roughly zero power in this situation.

And what do "normal" people do when they have zero power? They go to twitter and post a hashtag. Or they go to facebook and post a "share this status if..." This is the same thing, the only difference is that this time it's a president's wife instead of some college sophomore.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fridmarr » Fri May 09, 2014 6:55 am

Fivelives wrote:the only difference is that this time it's a president's wife instead of some college sophomore.

That's like saying a hurricane is just rain, the "only" difference is the 100mph winds. That difference makes it a different thing altogether.

I have no problems with her tweet. We're talking it about, so maybe it was reasonably effective at its intended purpose. But I can certainly understand how that sort of statement can also be eye-roll inducing.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fivelives » Fri May 09, 2014 3:02 pm

It's eye-roll inducing because it's an example of "slacktivism" from an otherwise powerful person. But I can understand and agree with what she's trying to do with it - twitter and facebook are powerful tools (if you doubt that, look at the revolution in Egypt and the constitution rewrite in Iceland) - but in the US they haven't been used to affect policy at all.

With our hard line stance on negotiating with terrorists, I doubt this will change anything. No amount of "awareness" is going to fix the problem even if it could motivate an otherwise apathetic executive branch to want to change our policy on official negotiations. I would almost hesitate to say it has the probability of backfiring in a massive way. Just because our "official" policy is that we don't negotiate with terrorists, doesn't mean that back channel negotiations don't happen every day. Raising awareness of the issue will shine a light on those things that, by their very nature, HAVE to stay in the dark alleys of politics.

In other news, I had a doctor's appointment this morning, and Faux Noise is still beating the Benghazi drum. Dubya Tee Effing Eff.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Fri May 09, 2014 3:25 pm

I think republicans should stfu when it comes to Benghazi, didn't they after all strongly push Obama to get involved in the civil war there? Well you get what you deserve by supporting one side in a chaotic mess, a side formed by dozens of groups vying for power.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Fri May 09, 2014 4:42 pm

Benghazi comes off as a giant circle jerk for the right wing.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby fuzzygeek » Fri May 09, 2014 11:55 pm

It's not the lie that kills you, it's the cover up.

Also, in case you didn't know, Real Men don't buy girls.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Brekkie » Sun May 11, 2014 9:57 pm

fuzzygeek wrote:Also, in case you didn't know, Real Men don't buy girls.


This shit is the new "Kony 2012".

Klaudandus wrote:Benghazi comes off as a giant circle jerk for the right wing.


It's red meat for the base to try and boost election turn-out. That's all.
I'd estimate that probably 80% of the Republican politicians who make a big deal out of it for the media admit deep down in their heart of hearts that it is just a tool.

A friend of a friend is the poor CIA analyst weenie in DC who has to give the Classified congressional briefings on Benghazi. The poor guy has the entire thing memorized because he's given it so many times now. And every single time goes the exact same way:
>Some GOP Congressman goes on Fox News and DEMANDS to know the TRUTH about Benghazi!
>CIA compliantly sets up a private briefing for the outraged Congressmen.
>NOBODY shows up. Just a staffer or two who sit quietly and listen to make sure the classified briefing hasn't changed.
>Next day, the same Congressmen get back on Fox News DEMANDING to know why the CIA WON'T brief them! What is Obama hiding????
>Repeat x100


From the GOP perspective, the truth honestly doesn't matter. Benghazi has served it's purpose. It fits into a narrative that gets their voters pissed off, and they know that everybody who has the security clearance to call them out on their bullshit can't.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Mon May 12, 2014 4:16 am

Brekkie wrote:
fuzzygeek wrote:Also, in case you didn't know, Real Men don't buy girls.


This shit is the new "Kony 2012".

Klaudandus wrote:Benghazi comes off as a giant circle jerk for the right wing.


It's red meat for the base to try and boost election turn-out. That's all.
I'd estimate that probably 80% of the Republican politicians who make a big deal out of it for the media admit deep down in their heart of hearts that it is just a tool.

A friend of a friend is the poor CIA analyst weenie in DC who has to give the Classified congressional briefings on Benghazi. The poor guy has the entire thing memorized because he's given it so many times now. And every single time goes the exact same way:
>Some GOP Congressman goes on Fox News and DEMANDS to know the TRUTH about Benghazi!
>CIA compliantly sets up a private briefing for the outraged Congressmen.
>NOBODY shows up. Just a staffer or two who sit quietly and listen to make sure the classified briefing hasn't changed.
>Next day, the same Congressmen get back on Fox News DEMANDING to know why the CIA WON'T brief them! What is Obama hiding????
>Repeat x100


From the GOP perspective, the truth honestly doesn't matter. Benghazi has served it's purpose. It fits into a narrative that gets their voters pissed off, and they know that everybody who has the security clearance to call them out on their bullshit can't.


Could it be this report?
http://www.intelligence.senate.gov/beng ... nghazi.pdf

But you're right, they keep asking the same questions, they have already been given the answers, but they either ignore 'em or just don't like the answers they're getting...
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Mon May 12, 2014 4:16 pm

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Brekkie » Mon May 12, 2014 4:50 pm

Klaudandus wrote:Could it be this report?
http://www.intelligence.senate.gov/beng ... nghazi.pdf


No. That is the Senate Intelligence Committee's report. It was created by the senators on that committee (well, their staffers...).

It is, of course, based on the information the CIA and DOS provided that committee in their investigation, so it effectively amounts to the same thing. It gives an accurate picture of the events.

Discussion relly
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Brekkie » Mon May 12, 2014 10:46 pm

So, in other news, I have an interview for a job working on the campaign staff of a Democratic gubernatorial candidate for the state of Rhode Island tomorrow. This will be interesting. I've never done anything like this before, and I expect it to be a huge learning experience. Definitely not how I expected to spend my summer.

I'd be working for the campaign of Clay Pell. He is the grandson of the late Senator Claiborne Pell, whose legacy is the Pell Grants (taxpayer-funded college scholarships for poor students, to the tune of a maximum of around $5000/year).
Clay Pell is a veteran of the Coast Guard, where he served as a lawyer. He was appointed to President Obama's National Security Staff where he served as Director of Strategic Planning, and then subsequently was appointed as a Deputy Undersecretary of Education in the Department of Education. He is very intelligent, graduating from Harvard and Georgetown Law School, and speaking Chinese, Arabic, and Spanish fluently. He is also married to former Olympic figure skater Michelle Kwan.


To be honest, the odds are against him, though it is still four and a half months before the Primary election. He is up against two formidable opponents who are both polling twice as high as him, mainly due to the fact that they have much better name recognition.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~Below is my analysis of the political environment~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Gina Raimondo, the current state General Treasurer, is probably the favorite. On her own initiative as Treasurer, she tackled the state's looming public pension crisis and negotiated a massive overhaul that passed with huge majorities in both houses of the legislature, reduced the unfunded liability of the state by $3 Billion (Context: the state's annual budget is about $6.5 Billion), and saved taxpayers another $4 Billion. She's quite popular with pretty much everybody except the public sector unions as a result, and has been so successful at fundraising that she broke records by gathering more than $700,000 of donations.

The other candidate, Angel Taverez, is the current mayor of the city of Providence (the only city in the state of Rhode Island). As a Dominican-American, he enjoys strong support from the large Latino population. As mayor, he has quite good approval ratings at 63.9%, and has a relatively uncontroversial record in contrast to Gina Raimondo, though its unclear if he has broader appeal beyond his base.

Clay Pell has a few things going for him:
-A famous name and a famous wife can't hurt. Older voters certain remember his grandfather very fondly.
-He has a hefty war chest. He donated $2 Million of his own money to his campaign.
-He has also pledged to not take money from any PACs or lobbying groups, which is a line of attack he can use against his rivals that will play well with the Democratic voters.
-He has good credentials in the area of Education. The teachers union recently endorsed him, which is big as well.
-He's a political outsider. Rhode Island is notorious for it's "who-you-know" cronyism political culture, and the state was scandalized in recent years by the high-profile bankruptcy of a video game company the state guaranteed millions of dollars of loans for.

The later is a double-edged sword. Pell has never held elected office, only appointed positions. Some critics are also trying to brand him as a carpet-bagger with only weak ties to the state. Politifact had to actually do an analysis of whether he had even spent a full year living in Rhode Island in his lifetime (they determined that he had).

Although his resume hasn't lent him much momentum, it hasn't made him any enemies either, which is not true for Gina or Angel. Although they have large number of current supporters compared to Clay, if Gina or Angel are to win, they will have to win over voters who are not fond of them. Clay doesn't have much of a base to start out with, but he may be able to convince enough people to see him as an alternative.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


So the bottom line is that Clay Pell probably won't win, but he has a good enough chance that he is a serious contender.

I figure that it would be an interesting experience to work on his campaign team, and the fact that he is both an outsider and not a front-runner means that I will likely have a position of much greater responsibility than I would if I worked for either of his opponents (who already had preexisting entourages of staff members).

He's also not nobody, and it will likely be a great networking experience, and potentially a stepping-stone to something bigger in the future.



I'll let you guys know how it goes.
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