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Politics (formerly Election 2012)

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:51 am

American foreign policy with regards to Russia: Say some fancy words, do nothing.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fivelives » Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:15 am

Isn't that because we're caught between two treaties (the one with Ukraine and the one with the UN)? Or maybe because Russia hasn't done anything actionable yet? Last I heard they were "invading" without firing a shot.

It seems like Crimea really wants to be a part of Russia. And from some of the information posted here, I can totally see why. So why not just nose out and LET them? I'm pretty sure there was no uproar when any of the American protectorates decided they wanted to be a part of the US. Granted, none of them were in the middle of a coup d'etat at the time either, so the situation is a little bit different.

Essentially, my take on the situation is this:
Ukraine explodes in a hail of gunfire and revolution.
Crimea responds by saying "no, no thank you. In fact, fuck you guys, I'm gonna move in with the neighbors, who I'm actually related to by blood."
Ukraine responds by getting all butthurt and thinking that Russia is invading them?

This whole situation is just fucked up. Everybody who isn't primary to the situation needs to just shut the fuck up and let it play out, I think. Any "help" from bystanders is just doomed to make the situation worse.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Nooska » Mon Apr 28, 2014 2:49 am

I agree to a degree.

You missed the complicated part of the situation; the Russia/NATO standoff (cold war, whatever you want to call it) - around here what is the worrying part of the news is teh discussion of the baltic countries (who are part of NATO), and who get very worried because of the rhetoric and stance of Putin and Russia.

The big question really is; how much of Putins rhetoric is just that, and how much does he, himself, believe (ie, how mad is Putin, and is he sane enough to just play out over Ukraine?)

Somehow, even though its been held up by talking heads here to be a cause, I'm glad that Ukraine didn't get to keep any nuclear weapons - I'm not actually worried that the pro-west Kiev powerholders would use them, but some people, like this selfproclaimed mayor in the east, seem quite unbalanced enough to not only threaten with usage, but do it, for lack of geopolitical understanding.

(Detention of OSCE observers, claiming they are spies, because they are military personel is so absurd that this guy must have lived under a rock, or been deliberatly misled as to what the OSCE is)
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:40 am

I don't quite understand why Putin is considered insane by same for what he is doing or why he would be considered insane if he attacked NATO.

Mind you I am not saying it would ultimately be beneficial for him, but it could be a calculated move on his part. Say for instance he attacks the Baltic States to reunite them with the Glorious Motherland, well NATO claims that he could take those countries over in a matter of days. Militarly NATO barely has any real forces there: What a few dozen F-16s, a couple of APCs and some few thousand troops? Laughable. Russian T-90s, aircraft and their dozens if not hundreds of S-300 and S-400 missile launchers would annihilate NATO there, hell I bet they could even take a sizable part of Poland before they were stopped.

Here's the thing though, it might just destroy NATO as well, politically at least. Imagine if Russia does attack NATO after invading Ukraine in response to wide ranging economic sanctions by the west, do you think every NATO member would rush to the east to abide by the terms of the NATO treaty? I have some huge doubts considering the economic situation of many countries in NATO at the moment and even if all political leaders did it there would be riots in Greece, Turkey, Spain, Italy to name a few countries. There would even be protests in France and the United Kingdom as well as Germany.

If a single major NATO country refuse to go to war, say Germany where a very large segment of the population do not want their nation to get involved in wars, or Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey then the question will be asked: Just what is NATO worth politically if members states don't care to defend one another? It probably wouldn't kill NATO but it would damage it's political standing by a substantial amount.

From Putin's pov that might just be worth it.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Brekkie » Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:38 pm

I find this whole crisis to be vastly overblown.

If Russia wants to bite chunks of Ukraine, there's very little America or NATO can do to stop him. We're at an incredible strategic disadvantage if we try to fight in that region.

And concern from NATO allies that "they are next" is silly. Russia won't attack NATO states. They will bite off places like Crimea because they are not NATO, i.e. because they CAN. The moment they DID attack a NATO state would be the moment they give a clear-cut, unambiguous pretext for intervention, and most of the western world will be treaty-bound to retaliate.

If countries who are not NATO are scared of being annexed by Russia, that sounds suspiciously like their problem. If they don't want it to happen, they should have joined NATO.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:56 pm

...most of the western world will be treaty-bound to retaliate.


Will they though? I have my doubts as to how much aid the western world would give if Russia invaded Romania right now.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:27 pm

Io.Draco wrote:
...most of the western world will be treaty-bound to retaliate.


Will they though? I have my doubts as to how much aid the western world would give if Russia invaded Romania right now.

Based on the response to a border dispute in which a region declared its independence and the Russian-majority population voted nearly unanimously to join Russia, you think NATO would do nothing if Russia threatened the sovereignty of a state nearly 100 years old in which the Romanian-majority population has not expressed any desire to join Russia.

Am I interpreting that correctly?
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fivelives » Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:36 am

Io.Draco wrote:
...most of the western world will be treaty-bound to retaliate.


Will they though? I have my doubts as to how much aid the western world would give if Russia invaded Romania right now.


Yes, and a lot.

It would come at the perfect time, with sanctions failing to have any obvious impact in Iran, to show that NATO does indeed have muscle. Plus it would be a perfect PR campaign in that it would be one of the few clear-cut unambiguously "right" things to do in the history of, well, history. There would be an obvious aggressor who clearly broke their treaties and invaded a peaceful country. The cold war is still relevant history to most worldwide leaders - or just a generation behind, to boot.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:49 am

I bet America would, but there would be quite a lot of hesitation on the part of many EU members of NATO. That's my take on it.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Nooska » Tue Apr 29, 2014 10:22 am

A good little war would be welcome for teh economy in many of the flailingeuropean coutnries.
In a clear cut situation with an aggressor, treaty obligations etc, a war helps unite countries that are struggling economically (plenty of history on that).

Of course, not a single leader of state inside NATO wants a war (there are huge downsides to it), but the economical trouble wouldn't be the reason to avoid it.

Historically warfare and teh military has only increased wealth.


As for "if Russia invade Romania" - you can bet there would be a large response, not just due to NATO, but the integrity of the EU would be breached, the EU countries would respond, even the ones that are outside NATO, and not just economically.

-

As for the reason Putin is regarded as mad by some, is because what he does is not rationally sound for anyone desiring peaceful prosperousness.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Brekkie » Tue Apr 29, 2014 10:45 am

Io.Draco wrote:I bet America would, but there would be quite a lot of hesitation on the part of many EU members of NATO. That's my take on it.


America would. Britain would. France would. Poland would. The Scandinavian and Baltic countries certainly would, for they have no love of Russia. Germany might not commit much in the way of troops, but they wouldn't hesitate to bankroll the others.

That's more than enough.

Also, the Russian military is honestly not that great.
Their special forces, cyberwarfare, and intelligence services are one thing, but the quality of troops and equipment falls off a cliff once you look beyond those small communities. Half their regular infantry are drug addicts. Most of their equipment is old and rusting amalgamations of cannibalized parts. Their logistical supply capability sucks.

Russia would not fare well in a head-on conflict with the EU, let alone the USA. The type of warfare Russia is best at is the type it is currently engaged in; low-profile, murky proxy-conflicts which are more about effective control of the narrative than about guns.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:45 am

Also, the Russian military is honestly not that great.


I'd strongly suggest you take a long hard look at the militarizes close to the border with Russia. They are in a far worse shape.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Nooska » Tue Apr 29, 2014 1:59 pm

Io.Draco wrote:
Also, the Russian military is honestly not that great.


I'd strongly suggest you take a long hard look at the militarizes close to the border with Russia. They are in a far worse shape.


Well since it wouldn't be the Romanian army that would be fighting Russia, but a pan-european army with the US, teh shape of the army in a given country is less of an issue.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Tue Apr 29, 2014 3:33 pm

I disagree, since there no significant forces of other countries in the area. It would takes crucial days for troops from the west of Europe to aid the east, and that's just talking QRF forces let alone mobilizing large segments of those militarizes.

I say this because my personal belief is we NATO should create military bases on it's eastern border, not some 600 infantry with a couple of F-16s, not eight jet fighters from Western European nations or a couple of Canadian F-18. If the goal is to deter Russia you need a lot more then that.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Tue Apr 29, 2014 6:54 pm

Fortunately for Romania, Putin is likely smart enough to realize it's not the materiel deployed on the first day of a conflict that matters, but the materiel that can be brought to bear over the term of the conflict. That's why Kuwait is not a province of Iraq.
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