Politics (formerly Election 2012)

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:47 pm

Brekkie wrote:
Koatanga wrote:His position is that the source of the black market weapons will be people invading homes to steal handguns. I find that position to be ludicrous. He's welcome to defend it if he likes.

Guns are owned by approximately 1/3 US households. So breaking into a house to get handguns gives you a 33% chance per break-in that there will be any guns to find. Then you have to deal with alarm systems, dogs, neighbours, and general risk of discovery, then you have to find the guns, deal with gun safes, etc., or potentially deal with a gun owner being home and armed. Then there's that whole cop thing.

Of the easiest targets, women, only around 9% have guns. Put it into WoW terms: That's a low drop rate. You could earn enough gold fencing the jewellery drops to buy the handguns off the AH (black market) as a more reliable way of acquiring guns.

I agree that handguns will be found in the course of normal home invasion robberies. But to increase those robberies for the purpose of farming handguns is every bit as silly as I made it out to be.


[Citation Needed]

Actual Stats

Stats seem to be somewhat in debate:

http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2011/04/ ... 303850331/
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/31/polit ... index.html

Seems this might be the explanation - the face-to-face poll, in which around 70% responded, has much different data than the telephone poll in which around 10% responded:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... ip-us-data

The face-to-face poll done by the University of Chicago reports 1-in-3 households, while telephone polls put the figure at almost 45%.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:55 pm

fuzzygeek wrote:In the midst of the endless circlejerking about handgun control and arguing policies that no one here will effectively make a whit difference, a reminder to do something this holiday (and every fucking day) that can and will make a measurable impact: make sure neither you nor anyone you party with drives drunk.

Since 1982 there have been about 400 deaths in "mass shootings" (cite found via google). For comparison, in 2010 there were 10,228 deaths involving a drunk driver.

This is just in the US; I don't know what world-wide statistics are, but youtube footage of Russian dash cams suggest horrible things happening there too.

Hope you and yours have a safe holiday.

Quoted for truth. Keep it sober and safe.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Brekkie » Sun Dec 23, 2012 2:49 pm

Koatanga wrote:
Brekkie wrote:
Koatanga wrote:His position is that the source of the black market weapons will be people invading homes to steal handguns. I find that position to be ludicrous. He's welcome to defend it if he likes.

Guns are owned by approximately 1/3 US households. So breaking into a house to get handguns gives you a 33% chance per break-in that there will be any guns to find. Then you have to deal with alarm systems, dogs, neighbours, and general risk of discovery, then you have to find the guns, deal with gun safes, etc., or potentially deal with a gun owner being home and armed. Then there's that whole cop thing.

Of the easiest targets, women, only around 9% have guns. Put it into WoW terms: That's a low drop rate. You could earn enough gold fencing the jewellery drops to buy the handguns off the AH (black market) as a more reliable way of acquiring guns.

I agree that handguns will be found in the course of normal home invasion robberies. But to increase those robberies for the purpose of farming handguns is every bit as silly as I made it out to be.


[Citation Needed]

Actual Stats

Stats seem to be somewhat in debate:

http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2011/04/ ... 303850331/
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/31/polit ... index.html

Seems this might be the explanation - the face-to-face poll, in which around 70% responded, has much different data than the telephone poll in which around 10% responded:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... ip-us-data

The face-to-face poll done by the University of Chicago reports 1-in-3 households, while telephone polls put the figure at almost 45%.



When it comes to statistics, I'll trust Nate Silver thanks.

Surveys explicitly about guns are almost certain to be biased, however exit poll data is probably not (except for the selection bias of "people who vote", which is corrected for) because the gun question is ancillary and unrelated to the primary purpose of the survey and thus unlikely to bias the results.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fridmarr » Sun Dec 23, 2012 3:13 pm

Koatanga wrote:
Brekkie wrote:
Koatanga wrote:His position is that the source of the black market weapons will be people invading homes to steal handguns. I find that position to be ludicrous. He's welcome to defend it if he likes.

Guns are owned by approximately 1/3 US households. So breaking into a house to get handguns gives you a 33% chance per break-in that there will be any guns to find. Then you have to deal with alarm systems, dogs, neighbours, and general risk of discovery, then you have to find the guns, deal with gun safes, etc., or potentially deal with a gun owner being home and armed. Then there's that whole cop thing.

Of the easiest targets, women, only around 9% have guns. Put it into WoW terms: That's a low drop rate. You could earn enough gold fencing the jewellery drops to buy the handguns off the AH (black market) as a more reliable way of acquiring guns.

I agree that handguns will be found in the course of normal home invasion robberies. But to increase those robberies for the purpose of farming handguns is every bit as silly as I made it out to be.


[Citation Needed]

Actual Stats

Stats seem to be somewhat in debate:

http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2011/04/ ... 303850331/
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/31/polit ... index.html

Seems this might be the explanation - the face-to-face poll, in which around 70% responded, has much different data than the telephone poll in which around 10% responded:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... ip-us-data

The face-to-face poll done by the University of Chicago reports 1-in-3 households, while telephone polls put the figure at almost 45%.

It seems to me that asking this particular question in person would be much more likely to get a lie as a response. As long as the data is weighted demographically, I don't think that the response rate matters all that much.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/Self- ... -1993.aspx (47%)

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Shoju » Mon Dec 24, 2012 7:46 am

I was going to respond, but then I saw that Fridmarr spoke up, and thus, I don't need to.

LOL@ Roving Bands of thugs. That made me giggle thanks.

And you are looking at it in terms of a "well, if I look at the US as a whole" type of thing, and looking at the "Drop Rate". That would be like farming for something in "WoW" Terms that has a 9% drop rate the zone over, but there is a specific mob, that smart people will look up on say.... WoWhead, and farming the mobs that have the better drop rate in the given zone.

You know, Being smart about it.

I'm done arguing with you Koatanga, You seem to want to argue whatever point you can to make sure your right, even if you look silly in the process. You keep clinging onto parts of what I say, not listening to the whole thing, and then rejecting stats given to you.

I too, will take my information from Nate Silver. It's not like the man is a quack. He's actually put forward some of the best stats in recent history for politics and (shocker) sports.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Mon Dec 24, 2012 7:49 am

I'd say we leave this thread alone for a few days, and go to the sports thread instead.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Shoju » Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:59 am

Klaudandus wrote:I'd say we leave this thread alone for a few days, and go to the sports thread instead.


Yeah, go chat QB stats with me. Maybe give me a new line of thinking about interesting stats for RB's and WR's, and the like.

/bounces like a pandaren out of politics.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Passionario » Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:35 am

Klaudandus wrote:I'd say we leave this thread alone for a few days, and go to the sports thread instead.

Or we could talk about other horrible political shit.

Like, say, Russian Duma recently passing a law banning all US citizens from adopting Russian children (in retribution for US congress passing the Magnitsky bill which prohibits corrupt Russian officials from entering US or using their banking system).

That's Garrosh level of villainy right there. :(
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:16 am

Or how there seems to be a glimmer of hope in NOLA

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/1 ... 30724.html
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fivelives » Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:51 am

A few other states have done that as well. I'm kind of speechless that ANY state would adopt a "revisionist" history, but it's far from the silliest thing a state government has ever done (SB 1070 springs immediately to mind).

At this point, I think we're possibly headed toward a second civil war - this one along the lines of Red vs Blue rather than North vs South. It's already being fought in congress. Hardcore conservatives have been going out of their way to ensure that nothing (just about) gets done, and it's a relatively short step from there to outright fighting. Honestly I'm pretty surprised full scale fights haven't broken out over issues like the national debt and the fiscal cliff already.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Melathys » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:08 am

This should be required reading for anyone debating gun control, regardless of which side you're trying to argue for.

http://larrycorreia.wordpress.com/2012/ ... n-control/

I'd like to see a response to this from the other side...because I don't think there is one.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby fuzzygeek » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:27 am

Melathys wrote:I'd like to see a response to this from the other side...because I don't think there is one.


The response is simple: if there are no guns, there are no deaths by guns.

The raw fact that this is an impossibility has nothing to do with it. That genie is out of the bottle, that horse is out of the barn, that egg is broken. But some people think passing laws can reverse entropy.

It is hard to have a conversation about "gun control" because the two sides are often working from completely disparate basic assumptions.

You look at any long going debate and the core problem is almost always different first principles. Then the debate rages about policy, and each side attempts to frame the debate so *their* vision of reality contains the One True premise.

I recently had a long conversation with a friend about gun control. He couldn't really think straight about the issue because it involved guns, which are Tokens of Evil to some people. Like, a gun on a table is Horrible and Dangerous. He couldn't think clearly because the discussion involved something that evokes a strong emotional response.

So I told him to replace guns with beer in our discussion (which lead to a lot of interesting reading on our part -- I would argue that alcohol causes more problems and is more destructive than firearms, but that's another thread). Every time he brought up an argument about firearms, turning it into an argument about beer made the logical inconsistencies clear.

It's an interesting technique and I recommend it to any rationalist.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Paxen » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:24 am

A response to Correia would be about facts:

- Are or are not armed civillians without a trained background like off-duty cops or ex-marines a deterrent or a speed bump in a gun massacre? I've heard both sides argued - that armed civillians have stopped countless shooting incidents, and that no armed civillian without a background like the ones I mentioned have ever stopped one.

- Do police officers have a uniform opinion on armed civillians, and if so, what is it? I've seen both argued, both that cops hate having armed civillians at the scene as it confuses the events and can even allow the shooter to escape while cops deal with an innocent civillian who fought back. The other argument is the one Correia puts forward, that the cops can't be everywhere and that minutes count.

Somebody has to gather facts about those two points, and present them neutrally. Until that happens you're just yelling at each other.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby fuzzygeek » Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:13 pm

1. I do not understand what you are asking for in the first paragraph. My contention is that if someone walks into the workplace with a gun intending to harm people, I do not want him to have the only gun on the premises. Does it matter whether it is a deterrent or a speed bump? I have seen people argue that if another person (nominative "good guy") in the room had a gun they would "feel less safe." I personally think such an argument is bollocks.

2. The opinion of police officers is immaterial. The police have no duty to provide police services to individuals (Warren v. District of Columbia). There are plenty of op eds by police both pro- and con-. Some police want gun control because they want to be the only ones with guns because it is safer for them. Some police do not want gun control because they want people to be able to defend themselves ("when seconds count, the police are only minutes away"). And when they do arrive, if they believe it to be a dangerous situation, they have no duty to engage.

Some googling around brought up this study ( http://www.terry.uga.edu/~mustard/police.pdf ):
Also, there is an inverse relationship between the rank of the officer and
the degree to which law enforcement officials support rights of law-abiding
citizens to carry concealed weapons for self-protection. The line officers,
who spend the most time on the street and should be most threatened by the
potential risk of additional permit holders, often express the greatest support
for concealed carry laws. In contrast, the highest-ranking, often politically
appointed officers, whose lives are least threatened, are the most vocal
opponents of the law. Survey results showed that 76 percent of street officers
and 59 percent of managerial officers agreed that all trained, responsible
adults should be able to obtain handgun carry permits.

...

This is the first study to examine how felonious police deaths are affected
by changes in waiting periods and laws that allow law-abiding citizens the
right to carry concealed weapons for self-defense. Although some people
oppose shall-issue laws because they believe the laws endanger the officers’
lives, there is no evidence for that belief. After controlling for an array of
factors, including trends before and after the law went into effect, I show
that states that enact concealed carry laws are less likely to have a felonious
police death and more likely to have lower rates of felonious police deaths
after the law is passed. This result is statistically significant in seven of the
nine specifications, and the difference between the before and after trends is
significant in over half the specifications.


Again, you're asking for opinions -- which are immaterial. Actual statistical analysis is more useful.

It's one of the things that is mind boggling. Some people think putting up "gun free zones" and making sure people "feel safe" is the same thing as -- or even morally superior to -- actually making sure people *are* safe.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Melathys » Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:33 pm

My opinion as a law enforcement officer about civilian or off-duty carriers who are responding to a threat... When uniformed personnel show up, the civilians need to disengage, perhaps even put your weapon on the ground and lay down. Uniforms showing up have no idea who the threat is, so you need to show in no uncertain terms that you are not the threat. Go ahead and let them cuff and secure you and explain yourself later. There are plenty of cases of off duty cops trying to back up their buddies, but end up only creating more chaos because on duty cops didn't know if he was a threat or not.

Are or are not armed civillians without a trained background like off-duty cops or ex-marines a deterrent or a speed bump in a gun massacre? I've heard both sides argued - that armed civillians have stopped countless shooting incidents, and that no armed civillian without a background like the ones I mentioned have ever stopped one.


The bolded part. Just last week there was an incident of a civilian with a concealed weapon when a shooter appeared. He drew his weapon and tried to engage, but he saw that if he shot and missed, he would likely hit civilians. Instead of engaging he took cover, however, the shooter saw him and his weapon and shot himself. As mentioned in that article, most of these shooters fold at the merest hint of an armed response. What the civilian did didn't involve any sort of military or LEO training, just one of the basic cardinal safety rules, "know your target, and what lies beyond it."
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