Akil'Zon Kicking my butt

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Postby Blaen99 » Sun Dec 02, 2007 11:32 am

jere wrote:I have tanked the eagle 10 or so times now, and have had it happen only twice. The prot warrior in our guild has tanked him about the same number and it has only happened once to him. I am not saying it is guarunteed to happen everytime but that it does occasionally happen (and that there is nothing bad or crazy about that, it is very manageable)


Err.

You just described the very essence of Prince enfeebling the tank.

I remember those threads and the full content of them - are you sure you are #1 on threat? 100%, no doubt whatsoever absolutely sure?
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Postby jere » Sun Dec 02, 2007 11:39 am

Blaen99 wrote:
jere wrote:I have tanked the eagle 10 or so times now, and have had it happen only twice. The prot warrior in our guild has tanked him about the same number and it has only happened once to him. I am not saying it is guarunteed to happen everytime but that it does occasionally happen (and that there is nothing bad or crazy about that, it is very manageable)


Err.

You just described the very essence of Prince enfeebling the tank.

I remember those threads and the full content of them - are you sure you are #1 on threat? 100%, no doubt whatsoever absolutely sure?


So far I have never had any trouble with threat on the eagle. I typically run about 20k-30k threat above the 2nd person early on and maintain a good lead from that point on. (though I haven't run it with a hunter in my group yet :) ). I start with JotC and AW in my initial threat cycles and build to about 20-30kish, then swap to JoL to help out healing our melee. My normal threat cycle keeps me at that lead (or better).

I am not sure I would compare it to enfeeble though. You are talking about something that will cause a 1 hit kill on a tank. The electrical storm isn't bad at all. I wouldn't even call it a bug. It probably has to do with positioning. So it probably is intended to happen depending on how everyone is positioned.
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Postby Comma » Sun Dec 02, 2007 11:44 am

jere wrote:I am not sure I would compare it to enfeeble though. You are talking about something that will cause a 1 hit kill on a tank. The electrical storm isn't bad at all. I wouldn't even call it a bug. It probably has to do with positioning. So it probably is intended to happen depending on how everyone is positioned.

Indeed.
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Postby Faelure » Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:02 pm

jere wrote:
Blaen99 wrote:
jere wrote:I have tanked the eagle 10 or so times now, and have had it happen only twice. The prot warrior in our guild has tanked him about the same number and it has only happened once to him. I am not saying it is guarunteed to happen everytime but that it does occasionally happen (and that there is nothing bad or crazy about that, it is very manageable)


Err.

You just described the very essence of Prince enfeebling the tank.

I remember those threads and the full content of them - are you sure you are #1 on threat? 100%, no doubt whatsoever absolutely sure?


So far I have never had any trouble with threat on the eagle. I typically run about 20k-30k threat above the 2nd person early on and maintain a good lead from that point on. (though I haven't run it with a hunter in my group yet :) ). I start with JotC and AW in my initial threat cycles and build to about 20-30kish, then swap to JoL to help out healing our melee. My normal threat cycle keeps me at that lead (or better).

I am not sure I would compare it to enfeeble though. You are talking about something that will cause a 1 hit kill on a tank. The electrical storm isn't bad at all. I wouldn't even call it a bug. It probably has to do with positioning. So it probably is intended to happen depending on how everyone is positioned.


Sounds like a max range mechanic kind of like Dahlia in heroic Arc with her shadow weave thing. I've never seen it cast on the melee or the tank in our runs, but we only have the casters collapse and the melee/tank runs to them taking <= 1 tick.
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Postby Blaen99 » Sun Dec 02, 2007 1:13 pm

jere wrote:
Blaen99 wrote:
jere wrote:I have tanked the eagle 10 or so times now, and have had it happen only twice. The prot warrior in our guild has tanked him about the same number and it has only happened once to him. I am not saying it is guarunteed to happen everytime but that it does occasionally happen (and that there is nothing bad or crazy about that, it is very manageable)


Err.

You just described the very essence of Prince enfeebling the tank.

I remember those threads and the full content of them - are you sure you are #1 on threat? 100%, no doubt whatsoever absolutely sure?


So far I have never had any trouble with threat on the eagle. I typically run about 20k-30k threat above the 2nd person early on and maintain a good lead from that point on. (though I haven't run it with a hunter in my group yet :) ). I start with JotC and AW in my initial threat cycles and build to about 20-30kish, then swap to JoL to help out healing our melee. My normal threat cycle keeps me at that lead (or better).

I am not sure I would compare it to enfeeble though. You are talking about something that will cause a 1 hit kill on a tank. The electrical storm isn't bad at all. I wouldn't even call it a bug. It probably has to do with positioning. So it probably is intended to happen depending on how everyone is positioned.


Referencing Prince enfeebling the tank is sort of the same thing - tank falls below #1, and can get enfeebled. But tank still has aggro and swears he was #1 on threat.

That's my honest gut feeling there - I've honestly, untill you said something, NEVER even heard of a tank getting stormed.
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Postby jere » Sun Dec 02, 2007 1:56 pm

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Twice in the same fight. See I am not lying.
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Postby Blaen99 » Sun Dec 02, 2007 2:02 pm

jere wrote:Twice in the same fight. See I am not lying.


Perhaps it was as someone else suggested - minimum range, if no one is outside of said range, it just picks someone randomly at minimum?

The frequency you are talking about would mean other people would have had to have ran into it before.
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Postby jere » Sun Dec 02, 2007 2:09 pm

Blaen99 wrote:
jere wrote:Twice in the same fight. See I am not lying.


Perhaps it was as someone else suggested - minimum range, if no one is outside of said range, it just picks someone randomly at minimum?

The frequency you are talking about would mean other people would have had to have ran into it before.


And others have. I asked in ZA general today, and some others said it happens to them as well. Vic in this thread also said he has seen it. The prot warrior that runs our other ZA group said it has happened to him.

It seems to be frequent enough. Perhaps you don't see it due to your strategy/placement or perhaps your data sampling isn't complete. It doesn't mean it doesn't happen though. And it seems to happen frequently enough.

Perhaps other people have seen it and simply not said anything cause it isn't anything extraordinary.
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Postby Blaen99 » Sun Dec 02, 2007 2:31 pm

jere wrote:
Blaen99 wrote:
jere wrote:Twice in the same fight. See I am not lying.


Perhaps it was as someone else suggested - minimum range, if no one is outside of said range, it just picks someone randomly at minimum?

The frequency you are talking about would mean other people would have had to have ran into it before.


And others have. I asked in ZA general today, and some others said it happens to them as well. Vic in this thread also said he has seen it. The prot warrior that runs our other ZA group said it has happened to him.

It seems to be frequent enough. Perhaps you don't see it due to your strategy/placement or perhaps your data sampling isn't complete. It doesn't mean it doesn't happen though. And it seems to happen frequently enough.

Perhaps other people have seen it and simply not said anything cause it isn't anything extraordinary.


My hunch is that it's directly related to the strat you use - in one form or another.

The odds of what you are talking about happening to us is in the range of 1 to several hundred thousand.
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Postby jere » Sun Dec 02, 2007 2:40 pm

Blaen99 wrote:The odds of what you are talking about happening to us is in the range of 1 to several hundred thousand.


If they use your strat, then the odds may indeed be that high. If they use the strat my groups use, the odds may be more like 1/5 (pulling this number out of my rear).

The odds of it happening aren't one in several hundred thousand (where does this number come from by the way?). The odds of it happening when using your strat might be 1 in several hundred thousand however. Using my strat, the odds that it will happen might be significantly better, especially since it happened twice in one fight today, and others on my server say it happens often.

Still, I am interested where you get these mathematical numbers from. What equation do you use?
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Postby Dorvan » Sun Dec 02, 2007 2:51 pm

This odds discussion doesn't seem productive...let's stay focussed on talking about the boss and/or presenting data/ideas about why this might be happening. :)
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Postby Blaen99 » Sun Dec 02, 2007 2:56 pm

jere wrote:
Blaen99 wrote:The odds of what you are talking about happening to us is in the range of 1 to several hundred thousand.


If they use your strat, then the odds may indeed be that high. If they use the strat my groups use, the odds may be more like 1/5 (pulling this number out of my rear).

The odds of it happening aren't one in several hundred thousand (where does this number come from by the way?). The odds of it happening when using your strat might be 1 in several hundred thousand however. Using my strat, the odds that it will happen might be significantly better, especially since it happened twice in one fight today, and others on my server say it happens often.

Still, I am interested where you get these mathematical numbers from. What equation do you use?


Threw the numbers at a guildee and it's what they stated.

Assumed 300 total chances of storms, 1 in 10 chance of being stormed, and they went from there.

This odds discussion doesn't seem productive...let's stay focussed on talking about the boss and/or presenting data/ideas about why this might be happening.


I think it's a really simple solution...using C-like code to illustrate

For (i = 0; i < players_in_zone; i++)
{
if (i > MINIMUM_RANGE_FOR_STORM)
storm_them;
}
else
for (i = 0; i < players_in_zone; i++)
{
storm_them;
}

Throw in some randomization and crap, and you have what I think it is.
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Postby Dorvan » Sun Dec 02, 2007 3:07 pm

Blaen99 wrote:
jere wrote:
Blaen99 wrote:The odds of what you are talking about happening to us is in the range of 1 to several hundred thousand.


If they use your strat, then the odds may indeed be that high. If they use the strat my groups use, the odds may be more like 1/5 (pulling this number out of my rear).

The odds of it happening aren't one in several hundred thousand (where does this number come from by the way?). The odds of it happening when using your strat might be 1 in several hundred thousand however. Using my strat, the odds that it will happen might be significantly better, especially since it happened twice in one fight today, and others on my server say it happens often.

Still, I am interested where you get these mathematical numbers from. What equation do you use?


Threw the numbers at a guildee and it's what they stated.

Assumed 300 total chances of storms, 1 in 10 chance of being stormed, and they went from there.


What you've given is the odds of never seeing a storm on the tank in your attempts given it's a static 10% chance for everyone involved, and it's actually closer to 1 in 50 trillion :P (1 in 1/(.9^300)) That's actually a different statement from the odds of getting a storm with your strat, since that could only be calculated if you knew the mechanic behind the storm. I'm actually guessing that the probability of seeing a storm on the tank given whatever you're doing is 0.

What your guildmate's calculation does show pretty conclusively is that the hypothesis that it's a completely random 10% selection independent of any other factors in false....I think we all agree on that anyway at this point.
Last edited by Dorvan on Sun Dec 02, 2007 3:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby jere » Sun Dec 02, 2007 3:07 pm

Dorvan wrote:This odds discussion doesn't seem productive...let's stay focussed on talking about the boss and/or presenting data/ideas about why this might be happening. :)


Dont' worry, we aren't fighting about it. I think we just have differring opinions is all. Having asked on my server and finding so many responses correlating to mine, I am pretty certain it happens frequently. That is why I was asking him about his model. It's not an angry question, just a question.
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Postby Blaen99 » Sun Dec 02, 2007 3:09 pm

Dorvan wrote:What you've given is the odds of never seeing a storm on the tank in your attempts given it's a static 10% chance for everyone involved, and it's actually closer to 1 in 50 trillion :P That's actually a different statement from the odds of getting a storm with your strat, since that could only be calculated if you knew the mechanic behind the storm. I'm actually guessing that the probability of seeing a storm on the tank given whatever you're doing is 0.

What your guildmate's calculation does show pretty conclusively is that the hypothesis that it's a completely random 10% selection independent of any other factors in false....I think we all agree on that anyway at this point.


Great. Disprove my theory then.

(Edit) For clarification, we use the "Everyone stack up on the fat-ass tree druid with the condom as his icon" strat that's about ~25 yards away from the boss and the tank.
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