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A disturbing trend

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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Koatanga » Sat Nov 21, 2009 4:33 pm

Argali wrote:It's basically how much you want to risk it. I think I remember on the program QI, it was said that there is a 1 in 3000 (? can't remember honestly) chance of you slipping, and dying in the shower. So that means, if you take a shower everyday, you will die in 10 years ^_^


Not to stray too far off track, and just for the benefit of people who may not kow the way statistics operate, they do not work like that.

You don't add 1/3000 to 1/3000 over and over to get the cumulative chance, arriving at 100% after 3000 goes.

Instead, it's a multiplicative effect. Your chance of surviving your first shower is 2999/3000. Chance of surviving two showers is (2999/3000) * (2999/3000), etc.

So rest at ease, your chances of shower survival after 3000 showers is actually 36.8%, not 0%. Clearly shower deaths are subject to diminishing returns.

Of course, that is strictly a mathematical analysis - other factors might affect your shower survivability that are not considered in the raw maths.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Fenrìr » Sat Nov 21, 2009 7:08 pm

Epimer wrote:
Fenrìr wrote:I used to not spec it because our drood had it in his spec. So I spec'd elsewhere.


So who would keep up the attack speed slow on Twin Jormungar? Or on Jaraxxus/adds? Or on Twins? Or on Anub?

"Someone else can do it" isn't a strong argument for not putting 2 points into one of the strongest mitigation talents available to you, because you're never guaranteed to have that someone else on your target 100% of the time.



Pretty sure I put 'used to' there for a reason. This was back in 3.0 days as well. So yes, there was enough reason to not put points there in those days.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Morendin » Thu Dec 31, 2009 7:20 am

Yeah, it's a necro, but there's an undocumented effect that I don't see mentioned at all:

Having at least one point in JotJ causes Judgement to proc SoC and the damage-component of SoV(though not the Holy Veng application). That makes trading JotJ for threat talents minimally effective even in a best-case scenario(taking the 2nd point out of JotJ for a point of Crusade, against HUD mobs), and an outright threat LOSS in most other trades. for, say, Anub'arak-25-h add-tanking, I feel the snap-threat of an additional cleave as you pick them up makes it one of the most important talents to have, even though you WILL have Frost Fever being pest'd onto all the adds even if you can't secure a imp TC/FF, simply due to the nature of DK AoE, and WON'T be able to keep JotJ up on more than 1 mob reliably.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby phaqueue » Thu Dec 31, 2009 10:26 pm

Koatanga wrote:
Argali wrote:It's basically how much you want to risk it. I think I remember on the program QI, it was said that there is a 1 in 3000 (? can't remember honestly) chance of you slipping, and dying in the shower. So that means, if you take a shower everyday, you will die in 10 years ^_^


Not to stray too far off track, and just for the benefit of people who may not kow the way statistics operate, they do not work like that.

You don't add 1/3000 to 1/3000 over and over to get the cumulative chance, arriving at 100% after 3000 goes.

Instead, it's a multiplicative effect. Your chance of surviving your first shower is 2999/3000. Chance of surviving two showers is (2999/3000) * (2999/3000), etc.

So rest at ease, your chances of shower survival after 3000 showers is actually 36.8%, not 0%. Clearly shower deaths are subject to diminishing returns.

Of course, that is strictly a mathematical analysis - other factors might affect your shower survivability that are not considered in the raw maths.



factors such as "whimsical adhesive ducks with umbrellas"? (anyone name the reference?)
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Melathys » Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:07 pm

majiben wrote:
Argali wrote:It's basically how much you want to risk it. I think I remember on the program QI, it was said that there is a 1 in 3000 (? can't remember honestly) chance of you slipping, and dying in the shower. So that means, if you take a shower everyday, you will die in 10 years ^_^
Somewhat off topic, but that number only makes sense as your lifetime chances of dying in a shower. If that was on a per shower basis, showering would be the leading cause of death.



Breathing is the leading cause of death. Think about it. Anyone who has ever died breathed air, therefor we can conclude that breathing air is 100% lethal.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Candiru » Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:58 am

Sometimes crazy specs are a good idea.

Back before dual spec when we were doing 20man Naxx I specced prot/ret where I went full ret DPS talents, but took 0 ret buffing talents (since there was another ret in the raid) so no imp.bom, HotC, ret aura, haste aura etc.

This actually saves so many talent points you can go 0/20/51 and still do max ret DPS (This was back before SotP boosted ret DPS thanks to SoBlood) as well as tank reasonably well. I only had to tank on Patchwerk and KT and Gluth I think. (any other 3 tank fights I forgot?)

It would be a crazy ret spec normally, but if you have another ret in the raid it was just as good at DPS as the normal ret spec. (which is one of the stupid things about the ret tree, so many buffing talents with 0 benefit to the ret. Compare imp.moonkin form vs swift retribution. Both cost 3 talent points for 3% raid haste, but the moonkin gets other benefits.

Dropping 1 point from JotJ and not taking vindication might well be a good idea in one particular raid setup if it lets you take points in say, Guardians favor for an extra BoP on Anub-hard mode and you have a warrior to do imp.demo shout on adds and thunderclap.

Crazy specs are for specific fights with specific raid comps though, and shouldn't be copied by other people!
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby greatcow95 » Sun Jan 17, 2010 5:57 pm

I think it's because on paper it sounds like a PvP talent. It reduces the cooldown of Hammer of Justice (which iHoJ already does and it's considered more of a PvP talent) and reduces melee attack speed.

I honestly believe it's the specter of PvP that makes Tankadins wary of this talent.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby srpnt » Tue Jan 19, 2010 3:23 pm

It took me a while to spec into this after I got back into wow, mainly because I didn't know it had been changed from 'Why are you specced into Vindication?' to 'Why aren't you specced into Vindication?' in the course of a minor content patch.

When a talent that everyone uses gets nerfed, it's a noticable change because you use the talent and it doesn't do as much as it once did. When a talent that nobody uses gets buffed, it's harder to notice unless you keep up with patch notes or visit resource sites like this one. Might just want to let people know that it's been changed - they may not even be aware of what they're missing out on, since their tank still works the same way it always has.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Eyes » Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:40 pm

>>I think it's because on paper it sounds like a PvP talent. It reduces the cooldown of Hammer of Justice (which iHoJ already does and it's considered more of a PvP talent) and reduces melee attack speed.


That's the experience I've had from people that inspect my talents. They read the first line and just zone out for the second half of the talent. Both JotJ and vindication are must haves for any tanking paladin in any content. Sure I could give them up for...threat/dps but I'd rather live forever then do that much more tanking dps.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Roots » Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:54 pm

I wish I could skip Infected Wounds.

God it would be such a tps boost to roll both ISS and iMangle. Do your bear co-tanks a favor and get this.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Aedh » Fri Jan 29, 2010 6:19 am

Eyes wrote:>>I think it's because on paper it sounds like a PvP talent. It reduces the cooldown of Hammer of Justice (which iHoJ already does and it's considered more of a PvP talent) and reduces melee attack speed.


That's the experience I've had from people that inspect my talents. They read the first line and just zone out for the second half of the talent. Both JotJ and vindication are must haves for any tanking paladin in any content. Sure I could give them up for...threat/dps but I'd rather live forever then do that much more tanking dps.


That acctualy what another prot pal I tanked with told me.
"it's a pvp talent. I don't use HoJ or SoJ so why should I pick it up"
Wasn't that crucial since I had it and vindication, which he also lacked.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Ventras » Sat Feb 06, 2010 11:58 am

Those paladins who do not spend talents or choose gear properly get carried by other tanks who are aware of their class. And they are the ones who win the rolls, get the same achievement as everyone else. Laziness works well with WoW unfortunately.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Holysmokin » Sun Feb 07, 2010 2:53 am

Ok, I only took the points from JotJ out because I was told raid bosses are immune to the effects of the atk speed debuff. If this is not the case can someone pls tell me how they know. As for vindication previously mentioned, raid makeup of 2 other rets alows me to spec out of vind.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby KysenMurrin » Sun Feb 07, 2010 5:16 am

First of all, there's a script that allows you to read the attack speed of your target. Secondly, the reason DKs, Bears, and Paladins were given an attack speed debuff is because Warriors have always had one (Thunderclap), it always worked on bosses, and it was an advantage they felt other tanks needed.
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Re: A disturbing trend

Postby Snake-Aes » Mon Feb 08, 2010 4:43 am

KysenMurrin wrote:First of all, there's a script that allows you to read the attack speed of your target. Secondly, the reason DKs, Bears, and Paladins were given an attack speed debuff is because Warriors have always had one (Thunderclap), it always worked on bosses, and it was an advantage they felt other tanks needed.

All of them also happen to trigger Torment The Weak, one of the biggest dps talents most magi have. And seals, which is even better.
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