Imp.Lay on hands + aura mastery. Where to take the point?

[Snake-Aes]

That is a fallacious logic. All hits are relevant to you, and the second hit is only deadly because the first was there to begin with.

[badgermonkey]

The odds of taking back to back damage with 40% avoidance is not 0.6*06=0.36. It is in fact 60%. The reason for this is that you don't care about when you take the first hit. You only care about the odds of taking a hit immediatley AFTER you have already been hit (and usually before a heal comes through because it may kill you).

Not true. The odds, on each individual hit, was 60%. The odd of being hit that 2nd time was 60%. But that wasn't the calculation. Considering each hit as a seperate entty, you always have 60% chance to be hit, per hit. But calculating the probability of being hit TWICE in a row has to take all possible permutations into account, IE.

Hit -> Hit
Hit -> Not Hit
Not Hit -> Hit
Not Hit -> Not Hit

The calculations take into account 2 hits into one probablity, therefore it changes away from the 60%.